True concerns about the future

So i did read a quote from Starr about player base and expectations:

Starr Long: at a modest number, we only need about 50k people per month active users to be profitable and that's a pretty low number considering that the fan base for a Richard Garriott Ultima game is in the millions

We cant see any numbers but i according to steam charts and in game experience it is much less and i estimate there are less then 5k people active playing the game. That means, with 1/10 of the player base that are needed, the game is not (or cant be) profitable. So my question to Portalarium is, what happens if the numbers do not raise? Are you guys able to keep the developtment going even without profit? I am a bit worried about investing more money if there is no future.
We do not know anything about the state of the game and how it works for them. Do you guys think it is save to say they do not have any problems and this game will run for the next 5 years?

 

What I think is about as useful as rolling a die with yes and no pasted on all sides.

 

Still way too soon to know, IMO.

 

Well.. I would prefer a monthly subscription based solution for additional extras on your account. Then letting the game fall apart.
If we would have (as you stated) 5K players, paying 12,99 monthly subscription. We would raise 64.950,- a month for development and future content.
Even asking 9,99 (5K * 9,99 = 49.950,-) would be a great help for them I guess..

 

I think the problem is that this is an game where you do need to invest some time sweat and tears, and theese never where exeedingly popular.

There is a reason i tend to play out an "popular game" in matter of days, and that is a steady diet of games like UO and so on. (not saying i am the pro Sota player but i tend to wear out "normal" games asap)

BUT I think there could be more player attraction if they make it double tiered.

The upper Tiers like now but below that more casual Tier layers with nice things for more casual players, with easier crafting and hunting and whatnot, but the results more geared at good looks and flashiness, not item stats, so people who go more for the social and casual playstyle have nice things, can decorate there houses to there wishes and do not need to do an Sota university diploma to be able to play. (income would come from RL money obvious to rent houses and such i guess, about like EVE Online, hardcore players fund acces inworld, casuals buy Subscription tokens (PLEX) and fund there fun ingame by selling them to hardcores)

So that Sota has two layers, the civilised part where casuals have fun and generate income for Devs by buying the shineys and what not, but playstyle is more relaxed and not as involving in the mechanics, but gear and items more aimed at look style and fun functions (like fireworks and so on, the shineys) but not as exiting with stats, and an "wilder" part pretty much like now (with maybe a little bit more tier 6 for the people who are bored flattening dragons singlehanded while reading an book).

Casuals would be able to peek into the "wilder" part as soon they are settled into the casual playstyle but do not have to.

Maybe give them an whole, more peacefull, continent, or isle.

And kick everyone who badmouthes them like calling them names and such for not killing dragons, I for myself tend to avoid cities anyways so what people do there is not of my concern and if they have fun and add to revenue that way all the better for me.

I do not talk about "dumbing down" Sota but making it Broader with and worthwile "lover level" experience for people who like more social but a little bit huntin and fighting thrown in.

Hell, maybe make an whole skill tree for rapiers and such, more good for formal duels and not as effective for fighting critters and such.
We could have an whole bunch of players who never leave town, make social events at castles and Duel each other and have feuds between aristocratic houses, would only add color to Sota

 

I think the monthly release streams have come to serve the same purpose as monthly subscription. They probably bring in more money than sub would anyway.

As for the future, I say give it a year. For the most part, games that are quickly "successful" don't last long. Personally, I would rather see a slow steady climb. I think it's the only way we're going to see what SotA is like 10 years down the road.

 

BLUF is that I don't know what the future holds anymore than anyone else. However there are some things that give me hope:

1. For years, Portalarium's cash flow has been fairly neutral (We got a look at Portalarium's financials during Seedinvest) which means as long as they don't incur new large expenses and the existing post mortem/game sales/add-on store revenue continues at current levels, they can continue indefinitely.

2. I think a good indicator of business health is the number of employees and developers on staff. Keep an eye on the Standup Corner. As long as the number of folks listed there remains stable, you can speculate the business is also stable. Portalarium has a history of adding and removing personnel as needed/can be afforded.

3. As more features become reality, I think we will continue to attract new players and bring some older ones back in. More players = more revenue.

4. I've noticed a definite increase in the number of new people in the Outlander Welcome Center and overworld map so the "launch" brought more people in. Funny thing is that many of us, from an in game perspective, just saw it as another release of many (Well except for @Minerva 's Dance Party which was great fun and this from someone who generally doesn't attend such events.).

5. The team is fiercely dedicated to the project. I've met most of them and their passion for the game is impressive. More than one said they "love" working on the project and you could tell they were sincere.

I agree with @that_shawn_guy and hope for a slow steady climb as well. I think we'll see that barring some unpredictable event.

 

Depends on how many of the new players use the Free Trial and upgrade it later into the full game. Do not forget that many players have invested alot of money into bundles with the intention to sell them later.
People with 10+ Accounts, thousends of CotO's and multiple Deeds will start to sell them and the Money will go back to the players and not to the Dev Team.

 

I agree! and I would rather have a solid consistent path then a flash up and then down.

 

Your concerns are legit.

5k, 10k, 15k, it doesn't matter.
Far too less active players.

The steam charts numbers are very very low, and considering that the steam users make up about 30% of the total SotA playerbase i would go even that far and say there are roughly only about 1-2k active players.
But even if i am wrong, again, 5k, 10k, it doesn't matter...

Very alarming imo...

 

I believe I read somewhere (I can't remember where) that that 50k number held with it the target of an average of $200 investment per player. That's difficult to achieve, given that with all the success of the crowd funding, the average backer contribution was $188 at launch. That's with the help of high dollar price points like Lord pledges and PoT availability.

 

This was true and I'm sure the financing from Black Sun and Travian helped. However, Portlarium disclosed their monthly operating expenses at $230,000, or $2,760,000 a year. In 2017, backers contributed an average of $137,550 a month (telethons included) for 2017 year end total of $1,650, 610. In the 19 months since persistence, they've taken in $2,747,038, a monthly average of $144,580 (telethons included). These figures ignore the seedinvest income though I believe most of that was promised to be used towards marketing the game.

None of that looks very promising. They have obviously found alternative sources of funding with deals with Black Sun, Travian, Meretz, and the seedinvest.

 

This is a very relevant conversation. I believe they have addressed the need to get more users in their priority list for Q2, as priority 6:

https://www.shroudoftheavatar.com/?p=85853

I would give it until the end of the year to see if the User Acquisition strategy is successful. We all hope it will be successful, and thus the player base continues to grow, as well as the revenues of this project.

 

In my opinion, one of the problems the game is always going to have is the rewards vs. investment newer players are willing to put forth. I say this as someone who came to the game after it was very close to launch. Not being a backer from day one has put me at a distinct disadvantage that I can never overcome without some serious luck and some serious investment as well. However, I should point out that I've put in about $1000 into this game so far because I really want to make it work. Those rewards for that amount of money are really crappy in comparison to what that money would have achieved in any other game that's ever been made.

But this isn't a complaint about having invested a lot of money in the game. It's a concern that spending that much money really doesn't give a whole lot of value in return. So, why did I invest that much? Because I want the game to soar. But I'm starting to see signs that the game isn't going to soar, and that concerns me greatly. Yet, if it was showing the opposite signs, I'd probably invest a ton load more than I already have because I can afford it. But I've looked at the rewards for doing so, and I just don't see them.

And that's why I suspect that a lot of others aren't going to either. But I have hope that the game will succeed. I just sometimes suspect that the game developers spend more energy pursuing the old supporters and kind of ignore the new ones.

 

Exactly! At the moment the income/outgoings ratio doesnt look good and i expect the income will drop when the RMT players start selling their stuff they saved for release. Why should people buy from the shop when you can get it cheaper throuh RMT.
And whats with Travian and Black Sun? Dont they get their part of the Cake from the sales now after launch? This might cut the income for devs and can hurt the game.

 

We need higher level tamable pets and a couple more active skills in the taming tree...then everything will be fine!

 

@sarbonn
For that comment to hold any value, you really need to be more specific as to how the "old supporters" are being supported at the expense of "the new ones" .

 

All I know is there are a ton of new players I am seeing now.

 

Yes but sadly that doesnt mean anything. Many of them can come and go without spending money with the free trial. I depends on how many of they new players still play the next 2 month.
Portalarium should have some kind of Plan B if stuff goes wrong

 

As Mac said, I too see many new players all the time, this past weekend the towns were filled with people.