Way below the odds blacksmithing critical success

Having a 23% critical success chance I crafted:
25 iron two-handed swords
3 copper two-handed swords
10 iron daggers
1 iron short sword
1 iron long sword
My only critical success was the iron long sword.
Something is wrong when you only get one critical success out of 40 with a 23% critical success chance.
This used up all the iron I had gathered since the beginning of R29.

XX

 

I just did a related test. 101 crafting attempts with the same 23% crit chance. I got no crits in the first 20, but ended up with 28/101 crits.

I think the RNG system is not working correctly even though it gives decent numbers over the long run.

20 nonexceptional in a row is really bad odds, and i see this kind of thing frequently.

 

Were you batch crafting? Currently, critical successes only apply to manually crafted items created one at a time. Batch crafted items do not take criticals into account.

 

That would explain a lot. Thx!

 

Thanks for the feedback! I have updated the crafting station info text to display the fact that exceptional items are not possible in batches.