Just made 20 Hardwood bows and not 1 Exceptional at 27% chance

Just made 20 Hardwood bows and not 1 Exceptional at 27% chance
all none exceptional bow's are now 150 Dura, thats great news, but with 20 bows i should have got 6+ exceptionals. Anyone else not getting exceptional s ?

 

Yes its a big problem this release ..getting 1-4 exceptional /batch of 20 crafted items ...lost so many mats trying to get exceptionals .

 

Maybe it's just my perception but it's always seemed like some people have no issues with certain pieces of armor and others can't craft an exceptional of that item to save their lives.

Mine is augmented chain helms. GM smith, prosperity hammer, waylands loop, benefactors table AND the devotional buff. I'm 0 for 20 which leaves a mark when you're using hardened leather straps.

 

Me out of superstition if I get three low chance fails in a row I restart the client.





RNGESUS - Random be thy game

 

I seem to run into the same problems, perhaps it is long odds and I end up sometimes not making the number of exceptionals I expect. I make tons of headdresses, just to get rid of the pile of heads in the corner, but I would need to track every crafting run, and make even more than I have heads to be statistically significant to analyze the RNG. I also seem not to make the expected number of efficient refine items from refining I had expected too.

 

I believe that the game rolls twice for each crafting "roll", taking the lowest. That means a 95% success chance actually results in success ~90% of the time, and 25% exceptional actually results in an exceptional item ~6% of the successful attempts. This is consistent with what I've been seeing.

I would like a developer to craft some items and step through the code to ensure that the odds are displayed and evaluated properly.

 

Unfortunately, your math seems really accurate from my experience. And it seems to also apply to master-working.

 

That is not a real card is it? I have been out of magic for a couple years now, never seen that one.

 

That one is super photoshopped...