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Masterwork crafting "math" off, continuation from R31

Discussion in 'Release 32 Bug Forum' started by 2112Starman, Aug 14, 2016.

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  1. 2112Starman

    2112Starman Avatar

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    As a friendly joke to the dev's, we call this "Portalarium math" because after you have played this game for a while, you notice that percentages sometimes seem way off, the math or code is off some how. For example, in R32, I have failed in crafting tasks with a 100% listed chance of success, how does that happen?


    I posted about this in R31 and was never responded to by a dev and mixed opinions from the group in R31.

    I have found Portalariums math off still in R32.

    Here is my test example, this was following massive failures at 85% chance before I did this test.

    I crafted 12 bronze augmented chain mail Helm:

    with a 24% chance of mastercrafts, I had 0 mastercrafts when done (I actually made 13 so with a 24% chance I was 0 for 13).

    So I used all the silver I farmed to try to Masterwork all 12 and here is the break down.

    4 failed and broke the first time.
    8 succeeded.

    My chances listed on the table started at 85% and ended at 87%

    I have 81 in blacksmith and I was on a pledge table.


    On a serious note, estimated time waisted due to fuzzy math, probably several hard hours of farming.
     
    Last edited: Aug 14, 2016
  2. Snazz

    Snazz Avatar

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    Had 4/8 failures at 85% today. I realize it's not a huge data set, but certainly seems off. >< Failing at 100 definitely sounds broken lol
     
  3. kaeshiva

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    I know what everyone always says to things like this - Oh, its just bad luck, oh its just bad rolls, over a large enough sample you should see the percentages reflected.

    And my conclusion? You really don't. The math needs to be checked.
    Maximum success chance on mastecraft/enchant seems to be 95%. I disagree with this - a grandmaster shouldn't be failing 5% of the time (1 out of 20) - that's silliness. Combined with the randomness of what you get, its frustrating enough.

    What's more frustrating is that you can't trust that 95%.
    A 95% mastercrafting a set of 5 armor pieces should be relatively safe. 95% safe.
    However over the past couple weeks in getting guildmates geared up I have failed on at least 1 piece of an armor set for nearly every person. This suggests a fail rate of something around 20%.

    Enchanting is no better. The number of items I've blown up with a 95% success chance is absolutely staggering. Sometimes several items in a row.
    Given the cost and quantity of materials to craft in the first place this is a really big problem.

    I queued up 20 pieces of jewelry to test the 1 out of 20 enchanting theory - failed 4 on the first go.
    I know that's a smallish data sample in the grand scheme of thing, materials are too costly to give more data.
    Does Portalarium look at stats for this? Could we at least review that data if so and see if things are working as they are supposed to?
     
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  4. foolishwtf

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    Did you batch queue the helms? Batches can't make exceptionals.
     
  5. Attenwood

    Attenwood Portalarian Emeritus Dev Emeritus

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    Submitting for review. Thanks for reporting!
     
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