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Lot deed Raffle/Lottery update!

Discussion in 'Announcements' started by Chris, Sep 27, 2016.

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  1. MIdnightvalkyrie

    MIdnightvalkyrie Avatar

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    I'm still missing an answer to this question: Do the tickets I've bought need to be in my bank or in my inventory at the time of the actual drawing? Or does it make no difference?
     
  2. reuge

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    Make no difference
     
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  3. MrBlight

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    Heh. I like how everyones freaking out over the 600 ticket purchase.
    Your all realize it was one of the largest guilds pooled in on it right? And that it really isnt that impressive.

    I started late august early september with a buddy. And 2 of us bought a good chunk ourselves.

    Everyones acting like its so impossible to get money and.. its really really not.
    * new lowly players cant get in on it!* we started brand new after final wipe. Also have guildmateaswho started just a week ago who still managed to buy a few tickets each..

    Im excited lets do this draw!
     
    Last edited: Sep 28, 2016
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  4. Selene

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    It was? I thought it was a scrappy group of bandits.
     
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  5. MrBlight

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    Hehehe scrappy indeed.

    I like what they did. And their intentions. Hope it works out for them.
    Just funny how many people got scared by their purchase n post lol
     
  6. Twiggi Fizzlesticks

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    Yes the 2606 POT ticket seems right

    Anyone can simply calculate with this python code (


    n=2606 #number of tickets sold
    d=600 #number of draws
    t=10 #number of tickets you bought

    nRemain=n
    percNoTicket=1.00

    for i in range(d):

    percNoTicket=percNoTicket*(nRemain-t)/nRemain
    nRemain=nRemain-1
    percOneTicket=1-percNoTicket
    print(percOneTicket)



    you get
    0.927336582924


    Or can use some combinatorics (need something that can hand big numbers (http://www.calculatorsoup.com/calculators/discretemathematics/combinations.php)



    2606-10
    600
    ---------
    2606
    600


    Which equals
    6.203408815 E+607
    ------------------------------
    8.537182897 E+608



    1- 6.203408815 E+607/8.537182897 E+608
    =0.9273366


    Now you can figure out your odds if winning at least a ticket if 500 more people buy a ticket etc
     
    Last edited: Sep 28, 2016
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  7. Twiggi Fizzlesticks

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    I should say seems 'about' right.
    Due to small dependencies the number may be off one or two.
     
  8. Swan

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  9. LoneStranger

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    Of course, there is no indication that it isn't just a one time thing.

    The correct answer is probably something in between, maybe once a year. I'll be disappointed if it's anything more often than that.
     
  10. Brickbat

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    Large is what more than 20 people? Just wondering...

    V/R Brickbat
     
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  11. Gideon Thrax

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    I think it's going to free tickets for every drawing until they're done handing out deeds - that's how I've been reading it anyways. This first raffle being just for the rich kids is a complete waste of opportunity if you ask me... social media would have blown up if the kickoff event would have been free chances to win tens of thousands of dollars worth of land deeds... oh well. I bought another ticket. :D
     
  12. Cinder Sear

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    "until they're done" :rolleyes: I wonder how much they intend to fill the world with deeds? How do they account for the players with deeds, but may not ever play or place? Very easy to oversell in this situation, and would they care? More money for Port, but at what cost for the players?
     
  13. Gideon Thrax

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    They could oversell POT deeds 100 times over and it wouldn't matter since governors have eviction powers. I don't like that they're raffling NPC deeds, but it is what it is... the POT deeds though, they could give away a million of those and it wouldn't phase me.
     
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  14. Acaelus Fireharp

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    Portalarium know the exact number of deeds in game, so I presume they will close the raffle if the number of deeds approaches the number of lots. Therefore there could never be more deeds than lots.
    Also future expansions are likely to add loads more lots anyway, so potentially the lottery could run continuously throughout each expansion.
     
  15. Brickbat

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    Nature of socialism is that once you start a "hand out" style system you can rarely take it away without an uprising of the proletariat. I believe that the "POT Only Deed" Lottery will continue each Release FOREVER (the quantity is so low that it's likely acceptable influx each month to eventually fill the available territory). The "Anywhere" Lottery will continue for about 40 months because 75 * 40 = the approximate 3,000 (30% of Pledge Deeds they agreed to).

    V/R Brickbat
     
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  16. Cinder Sear

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    equals assume (and we all know the saying) :rolleyes: I hope you are right...
     
  17. LoneStranger

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    That's not how I interpreted their communications. The free ticket for the raffle was one time only as a sort of 'event' to get press and provide some kind of kickback to the 90%. They'll keep doing the raffles, but they have not announced anything about free tickets past the R34 drawing at the end of October.

    Of course, their communications have not exactly been completely clear, so what do I know?
     
  18. Gideon Thrax

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    Has anyone done the math on the full add-on store price of the deeds being given away for this first raffle? $247,500.00 ... so basically, Portalarium is giving away almost a quarter of a million dollars worth of land deeds in a kickoff raffle event and there's been no press on it.


    uhm.
     
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  19. Barugon

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    Except they said previously that it was only for R34; and no, I'm not going to look up the post for you.
     
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  20. Spoon

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    Psst.

    1.
    The free ticket handout is only this one time, they have clearly stated it as such.
    2.
    Over 1 year ago they talked about adding 'lottery tickets' as part of end Quests, so that might rather be the way forward.
    3.
    European History proves your conjecture about the so called "nature of socialism" to be incorrect. (I say european only because that is the one I know best, asian history would be similar but harder for me to dig up sources on). Since that is not how human nature/politics works. It takes very large upheavals to spark any uprising of any "proletariat", while if the situation is decent then it is quite easy to remove handouts with only token resistance. Heard of Austerity measures a few years back? No uprisings, just token and often political resistance by a minority. Also note that the invention of state controlled handouts has a history that stretches to the roman empire and beyond, where the modern version which we recognize today largely can be traced to Otto von Bismarck and his "Practical Christianity" who was very much a nationalist and anti-socialist who passed anti-socialist and anti labor laws.
    4.
    Even the place anywhere raffle could continue beyon 40 months since Episode II will bring new land on a new continent which faces pretty much the same scenario.
    5.
    To me it seems a very strange to conjecture that a Raffle aimed at removing wealth and designed to hand out prizes below the value spent on tickets would have any relation whatsoever with handouts or socialism in general??? Especially since recorded 'state' lotteries predates socialism with about 2000 years or so, and likely earlier than that.
     
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