1. Here you will find official announcements and updates. These announcements are also linked in the Official SotA Discord server.
    We encourage comments from the community! To keep the announcements official, we ask that comment threads be created in the General forums for player input.

                                                 Thanks!

Release 45 Lot Deed Raffle Winners and R46 Raffle Details

Discussion in 'Announcements' started by Berek, Sep 28, 2017.

Thread Status:
Not open for further replies.
  1. Berek

    Berek Portalarian Emeritus Dev Emeritus

    Messages:
    3,957
    Likes Received:
    12,761
    Trophy Points:
    165
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    Austin, TX
    The latest Lot Deed Raffle was drawn with deeds awarded to the following lucky winners!

    Link:
    [​IMG]

    Link:
    [​IMG]

    Congrats all!

    As seen above, there were two raffles, one for each lot type:

    Place Anywhere Deeds (10):

    • Row: 5
    • Village: 3
    • Town: 1
    • City: 1
    Player Owned Town Deeds (10):
    • Row: 5
    • Village: 3
    • Town: 1
    • City: 1
    Raffle tickets grant the holder a chance to win deeds of any size (Row, Village, Town, or City). Raffles are held monthly (total deed numbers may vary each month). Winners can claim their deed(s) simply by logging into the game and claiming rewards at any bank.

    If you wish to review all of your account rewards outside of the game, you can do so by going to the Account menu on the main website and then selecting the ‘Special Rewards’ tab in the page menu.

    Release 46 Raffle Now Open!

    Tickets can be purchased with in-game gold. As with the previous raffle, each person can only win a single deed of each type (maximum of one place anywhere and one POT). The drawing and winners will be announced at the start of the next release cycle.

    As before, there are two raffles, one for each lot type:

    Place Anywhere Deeds (10):
    • Row: 5
    • Village: 3
    • Town: 1
    • City: 1
    Player Owned Town Deeds (10):
    • Row: 5
    • Village: 3
    • Town: 1
    • City: 1

    More information about the raffles can be found in the latest Release Instructions announcement.

    A reminder for previous raffle winners to claim your deeds in the bank!
     
    Last edited: Sep 29, 2017
    OxNull, Rentier and Lained like this.
  2. Lained

    Lained Avatar

    Messages:
    2,786
    Likes Received:
    4,772
    Trophy Points:
    165
    Location:
    Yeovil, England
    Congrats!
     
  3. Dereck Visaard

    Dereck Visaard Avatar

    Messages:
    252
    Likes Received:
    444
    Trophy Points:
    40
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    Austin, TX
    Congrats everyone!
     
  4. Rentier

    Rentier Avatar

    Messages:
    915
    Likes Received:
    1,304
    Trophy Points:
    105
    Location:
    Dragomir Mori
    congrats to the winners
     
  5. Humanexperiment

    Humanexperiment Avatar

    Messages:
    19
    Likes Received:
    71
    Trophy Points:
    3
    wowow congrats all!! and me!))))
     
  6. Ancev

    Ancev Avatar

    Messages:
    1,150
    Likes Received:
    1,956
    Trophy Points:
    113
    grats. another 340k down the drain..
     
  7. mystarr

    mystarr Avatar

    Messages:
    463
    Likes Received:
    1,092
    Trophy Points:
    55
    Gender:
    Male
    Congrats to all the winners.

    Has anyone else noticed that there is one name that has literally won every the raffle every month...?

    Even if you buy LOTS of tickets, and crunch the numbers/stats, that's starting to be improbable...

    If you bought enough tickets each month to have a 50% chance to win one of the 10 deeds, the chance that you would win 12 months in a row starts to get low .5^12 = 0.02% chance.

    If you bought enough tickets each month to have a 75% chance to win one of the 10 deeds, the chance that you would win 12 months in a row would be .75^12 = 3.17%

    From what I can tell from the API, nobody is buying that many tickets each month. (At least not all in one purchase.)

    https://www.shroudoftheavatar.com/f...raffle-winners-and-r46-raffle-details.100731/
    https://www.shroudoftheavatar.com/f...-raffle-winners-and-r45-raffle-details.98872/
    https://www.shroudoftheavatar.com/f...-raffle-winners-and-r44-raffle-details.96278/
    https://www.shroudoftheavatar.com/f...-raffle-winners-and-r43-raffle-details.93464/
    https://www.shroudoftheavatar.com/f...-raffle-winners-and-r42-raffle-details.90449/
    https://www.shroudoftheavatar.com/f...-raffle-winners-and-r41-raffle-details.87998/
    https://www.shroudoftheavatar.com/f...-raffle-winners-and-r40-raffle-details.84696/
    https://www.shroudoftheavatar.com/f...-raffle-winners-and-r39-raffle-details.81046/
    https://www.shroudoftheavatar.com/forum/index.php?threads/release-37-lot-deed-raffle-winners.77968/
    https://www.shroudoftheavatar.com/forum/index.php?threads/release-36-lot-deed-raffle-winners.74515/
    https://www.shroudoftheavatar.com/forum/index.php?threads/release-34-lot-deed-raffle-winners.69112/
    https://www.shroudoftheavatar.com/forum/index.php?threads/release-33-lot-deed-raffle-winners.65161/
     
    Last edited: Sep 28, 2017
  8. Skywalker75

    Skywalker75 Avatar

    Messages:
    9
    Likes Received:
    6
    Trophy Points:
    3
    YEAH gratz to all winners :) and omg i won my first deed :)
    Can this be true :)

    greetings Joereg Arvenson
     
  9. Paladin Michael

    Paladin Michael Bug Hunter

    Messages:
    2,649
    Likes Received:
    4,202
    Trophy Points:
    153
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    Perennial Coast
  10. Weins201

    Weins201 Avatar

    Messages:
    7,121
    Likes Received:
    10,958
    Trophy Points:
    153
    this is VERY simple the more you buy the more you have a chance to win -

    I am not going to look back at all these but the system favors the rich and power gamer, (those that abused the systems !!!!) has from the beginning -

    ITYS
     
  11. Skywalker75

    Skywalker75 Avatar

    Messages:
    9
    Likes Received:
    6
    Trophy Points:
    3

    Wow thats really hard to see. How can one person win every single raffle. If this is luck than this guy should play Lottery. And than at the beginning one of every deed. Crazy ****.

    I have to spend more gold in raffles, but it was all i got in one month :/
     
  12. MrBlight

    MrBlight Avatar

    Messages:
    2,388
    Likes Received:
    4,452
    Trophy Points:
    153
    Could be they r spending 200 to 250k gold and hovering around an 80-90% win rate..
    The other raffles had more prizes too..

    Not that unrealistic.. ive won in every one i put my normal amount in.
    But i havnt lately as i dont play much anymore.
     
    Moiseyev Trueden likes this.
  13. Rennik

    Rennik Avatar

    Messages:
    155
    Likes Received:
    338
    Trophy Points:
    30
    Gender:
    Male
    Location:
    Winchester, VA
    I love to enter more... but I have never had enough gold to get more than 3 or 4 tickets. :(

    Can't help but agree... those that have the most gold have the best chances to win.
     
  14. Ancev

    Ancev Avatar

    Messages:
    1,150
    Likes Received:
    1,956
    Trophy Points:
    113
    yeah we had 48 tickets. brutal.
     
  15. mystarr

    mystarr Avatar

    Messages:
    463
    Likes Received:
    1,092
    Trophy Points:
    55
    Gender:
    Male
    With 600 tickets sold you would need to buy around 90 tickets (450k IGG) in order to have an 80% chance to win one of the 10 deeds. (Give or take a little. The math gets tricky since if someone wins, all of their other tickets are voided.)

    Even with an 80% chance to win, your chance to win 12 times in row would be.... 6.87%

    From the results of the API more than 60o tickets are being sold each month (makes the odds of this feat even lower) and nobody is buying 90 tickets each month...
     
    Last edited: Sep 28, 2017
    Moiseyev Trueden and Rentier like this.
  16. Rentier

    Rentier Avatar

    Messages:
    915
    Likes Received:
    1,304
    Trophy Points:
    105
    Location:
    Dragomir Mori
    so the wealthy have a greater chance to win than newbies and not so rich igg ones

    my merly 3 tickets cost me my fortune of farming 3 weeks including selling most weapons i looted (im adv lvl80 atm)
     
    Rennik likes this.
  17. mystarr

    mystarr Avatar

    Messages:
    463
    Likes Received:
    1,092
    Trophy Points:
    55
    Gender:
    Male
    From what I can tell from the API, the breakdown was roughly 899 tickets sold broken down as follows

    # Individual Sales /# Purchased / Tickets
    294/ 1/ 294
    59/ 2 / 118
    11/ 3/ 33
    20/ 4/ 80
    13/ 5/ 65
    4/ 6 / 24
    2/ 7 / 14
    5 / 8/ 40
    8 / 10 / 80
    1/ 11 / 11
    4/ 20 / 80
    1/ 60/ 60

    So that reads that :
    294 people bought 1 ticket,
    59 people bought 2 tickets,
    .
    .
    .
    4 people bought 20 tickets
    1 person bought 60 tickets

    EDIT: For clarification these are just the numbers from the POT raffle. So these 899 tickets were for 10 chances to win (not 20 chances to win)
     
    Last edited: Sep 30, 2017
    Rentier likes this.
  18. Michael DragonBreath

    Michael DragonBreath Avatar

    Messages:
    19
    Likes Received:
    16
    Trophy Points:
    3
    Congrats to all the first time winners, and those who have occasionally lost. I do find this very interesting and have to request that this be investigated. It has to be statistically impossible for one account to win in 12 consecutive raffles, given the purchased ticket distribution given above. It definitely sounds like something may be wrong with the random selection process and I think it's reasonable to ask that this be investigated, with the results posted here.
     
    Rennik likes this.
  19. MrBlight

    MrBlight Avatar

    Messages:
    2,388
    Likes Received:
    4,452
    Trophy Points:
    153
    Is that adjusted for when there was more then 10 prizes? Or is that based on 10 prizes?
     
  20. Michael DragonBreath

    Michael DragonBreath Avatar

    Messages:
    19
    Likes Received:
    16
    Trophy Points:
    3
    I just did a simplified version of the calculation based upon the present 20 prizes with 900 tickets sold. Purchasing 60 tickets would give you a 24.8% chance of not getting a deed (i.e. - loosing all 20 selections), meaning the odds of winning would be 75.2%. Now this does neglect the impact of removing multiple tickets for the winners that purchased multiple tickets, so yes the actual odds will be higher. But that being said, with a 75% chance of winning, the odds of repeating the feat drops off quickly. Winning 6 consecutive drawings is 18%, 8 consecutive 10%, 10 consecutive 5.8% and 12 consecutive is 3.3%.

    Looking at this another way, with the present format of 20 deeds available per month, even if one purchases 10% of all the tickets for each raffle, the odds of winning a single raffle are very good = 88%, but drop to 22% for winning 12 consecutive raffles. Purchasing 5% of the tickets the odds of winning a single raffle are 65% and 0.5% for 12 consecutive raffles.

    So is this just luck or is there something wrong with the selection algorithm?
     
Thread Status:
Not open for further replies.