Hoping for a fix uppon R52 to Crafting Error w/ 3rd Ench/Mtwk

You didn't have any text with your post so I wasn't sure which direction you were trying to make a point from. All that says to me is that Port is aware of players concerns and they have looked into the math. That doesn't sound to me like they have found anything wrong.

 

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If this is a bug, please report it in the bug forums.

 

So what Fzol is saying here is that it show's a 48% success rate, but the actual results are 16-19%. So the actual ercent shown to the player is inaccurate.

And then List say's "You talking about the % chance to fail not being accurate?" and "The % chance to fail shown to the player isn't accurate..." Funny thing is there could have been any number of bugs affecting the enchanting/masterworking, but he nailed down which bug I was asking about on the first guess.

Is this clear enough?

It has already been assigned a bug ID#. That is the reason why the OP is asking for some reassurance as to whether the bug is going to be allowed to persist as it has persisted for a long time already. This is pretty much the stigma that follows crafting in this game. It's kinda like SoTA Math and the combat system. I heard an interesting one today the higher your dex the lower crit chance becomes, so it was like the backwards math bug in moon magic that was making it more difficult for higher level players to mez a target. Only in SoTA math.

 

Genuinely curious though, does anyone have any kind of test data that shows this? Similar to what Sara did that showed the 45ish% was working correctly for her?

 

It has been reported, but nothing has been done. Would look pretty bad to new players if this bug was still in play when the game launches

 

No, because it still sounds like they recognize that players have a concern, and are looking into it, but have still not been able to duplicate the issue. I would not call that validation that it is a found bug, I would call it recognition that players feel it’s a bug and they are trying to find out if it is.

I’m no where near the crafters that Mangnar and Sara are, but I as well have not noticed this to be valid. By all means, the devs should find out for sure, but as Spoon says, it’s sounds like it’s something more specific than generic, and not everyone comes across it.

 

In my experience, 3rd enchant / masterwork both work as advertised.

 

I have been keeping meticulous records of every single craft, enchantment, and masterwork since R32. I went back through my records and compiled a list of every single 3rd Enchantment I've done since my success chance hit 48%. I succeeded 60 times out of 137 attempts, or about 44%. Based on this sample, the 95% confidence interval for the true proportion is (0.353, 0.525). Using a one-sample proportion test, the probability that this sample proportion differs from the hypothesized proportion of p_0 = 0.48 is p=0.3474. On the other hand, the probability that your claim that the 3rd success change is "actually 16% - 19%" is p<0.0001.

@Mangar - I know you've reported this "bug" many times. However, you have not provided any evidence to back this claim. Anecdotal evidence is not sufficient. You need to produce numbers and statistics to back it up. If other players such as myself and @Sara Dreygon have not been able to reproduce your results, I'm not sure what you want Portalarium to do about it.

Please understand that I am not personally attacking you, @Mangar. I'm just trying to clarify what precisely is the problem. Then we can talk about ways to address the problem.

- Lao Tzu

 

Yesterday i had the most annoying experience in SOTA after 3100 hours of gameplay, i have gm masterwork and 106 enchant, and crashed 9 bronze plate itens in a row having "83%" of sucess chance! i Burned about +200 tin.. a lot of silver and gold ore ... suet/ leather.. using materials from a friend that requested me to craft a new armor...

HOW can i explain that i ruined all his stuff that worth almost 70k being gm crafter ?

When this stupid RNG will be fixed ?


A GM crafter should never have this issue! Make better percentile for high end game crafters!! we have spent thousands of hours on that!

 

The problem is not whether the % chance shown is correct or not...

The problem is that there IS a % chance in the first place. It's been my biggest complaint ever since they introduced Enchant/MW with a huge risk of blowing up and losing everything.

They do have plans to change the total loss factor and instead leaving you with a low durability item for your failure (but locked from further enchant/masterwork) so at least we will be getting something back for our efforts. I'll wait to see that introduced before commenting on it, but I would still rather see RNG removed from the crafting process and instead move it over to the mob/harvest node loot tables.

Limiting the number of superior (or even inferior) crafting items in circulation seems to be the main concern and why the blowup risk was added. But if they would have simply required 1 rare loot drop ingredient for all the best recipes... it would limit the number in circulation by how many come from the loot tables. If you don't have the "dragon scale" you can't make the "dragon scale shield". I would much rather have seen that type of system than what we have now because at least when I got that rare ingredient, I knew I was going to end up with something great and I know someone would be happy to pay a nice sum for it because they know they will end up with something great if they buy it... not a dice roll that may leave them with leather scraps.

 

I have never had a 3/3 survive.

 

Hey, Sara and anyone else listening, when you do you swords do you ever enchant them all twice first? Wondering if there is something else at play. Perhaps the 3rd mw on a 2/2 has different percent than on a 0/2? Just a guess.

 

Hmmm... a good thought. I'm sure I have before but many of my swords I masterwork need the masterworks done first so I can get the durability masterwork.

I'll test sometime.

 

I am aghast. so this is why I've been blowing precision and speed bows up so much?
this is heinous. the big issue, is how long have they known and done nothing, leaving it to be so much of a feature.

port now has the trust-ability rating of electronic arts and ubisoft.

I see no reason to craft now
hell if it werent double xp i'd probably go play something else now.

this, is egregious fuckery of the highest order.

 

Did some crafting lately, on cloth 3rd MW, 33 broke 19 succeed, sometimes I have bad days like this, usually I stop and wait for another day after about 5-10, but I needed to get it done. A while later I was doing some necklaces, on 3rd enchant 17 broke and 15 succeeded, it was an decent day. I have had days before where I was getting over 50% on 3rd as well, but they are rare. When those days do come along, I try and craft as much as I can till it ends.

On a side note, when it is raining, I always do horrible. I have asked others and its not the same for them. I know this totally sounds like confirmation bias, but its really confirming every time LOL.

 

I have to reinforce what @Sara Dreygon here says (doesn't this thread crop up every month?) and say that the third percentages on enchanting seem to be working fine....I'm right at 50/50 on a 3rd go, and that's about how often it works overall. I do a lot more enchanting than I do masterworking, and it seems to be working as advertised over large batches.

I do have related concerns, such as:
- Failure chains. You see this often gathering as well, where the RNG seems to get 'stuck' and its possible to fail a 94% gather 3-4 times successively. You'd expect to see this ever so occasionally, but in both gathering and crafting it happens far more often than is probable. The odds of failing a "95% success" 3-4 times in a row is staggeringly low and yet we see it sometimes more than once a day.

- The percentages are just too low. While I think other than the above 'failure chain' issue, which seems to crop up from time to time, the percentages work as advertised, I think there is far too big a divide between the 2nd and 3rd percentile, especially considering the experience investment required in crafting. 3rd attempts should be somewhere in the 70s, not the 40s - the gear is ultimately limited by durability anyway, and again limited by the RNG giving you crappy rolls requiring needing to push/risk further or, more often if the RNG is really crappy, just scrap and start over to not waste metal working on crap. I think 49% is insulting to an artisan who has invested enough experience to GM something several times over and just not necessary. Others will disagree. But either way, I am *getting* the 49% return. This means like 1 in 10 items ends up being usable (exceptional / survives) and if I make 80 or so, I might even get the bonuses I want. /eyeroll

 

Combinatorics ( a branch of math that deals with linked probabilities) says it should but I'm not sure how it works ingame. Theoretically the item with 2/2 has the formula of surviving the 3rd masterwork as :

= [%surviving the 3rd masterwork] x ([% surviving the 1st enchant] x [ % surviving the 2nd enchant] x [% surviving the 1st masterwork] x [surviving the 2nd masterwork])

The formula for the 0/2 would be this :

= [%surviving the 3rd masterwork] x [% surviving the 1st masterwork] x [surviving the 2nd masterwork]

The chances of the 0/2 surviving the 3rd masterwork should be higher than that of the 2/2.

 

I am in agreement and do not find this broken as folks repeatedly insist.

 

I bug reported something last release of similar. It might have just been bad luck but from about 20+ necklaces i did, they all but one did 2 enchants fine, then they all failed on the third enchant at i think 43%, not one was successful.

 

Ummm... guessing you didn't read the whole thread where I did 168 third masterworks at 48%...?

This is what happens when we post blatantly wrong information as fact. Like Archer said "this is how you get ants" but in this case the ants are bigger and troll-like.