+1 HQ Item Success Rate

I'm working Blacksmithing as a tank and as such I'm used to a decent fizzle rate casting in combat. However, crafting my own gear I've noticed poor success Blacksmithing the +1 HQ items. I'm 91 Blacksmithing skill and supposedly have a 24% success chance to produce HQ (+1). However, I've been seeing 5 to 10% range crafting armor, rings & necklaces for +1 HQ item success.

So today I tried crafting 15 rings in my full plate armor and got one +1 ring out of 15 tries.

I then pondered getting naked to try another 15 tries... and did get naked... all plate armor pieces off and unequipped weapons as well. I then did another 15 rings and got 7 of the +1 rings out of 15 tries.

Too small of a sample or might there be something here? Anyone tried anything like this?

 

Interesting. I see some naked crafting in my future......(because, why not?)

 

Your average is 8/30 or 26.67%, well in line with what it's supposed to be.

 

Still would be interesting to do a long run of items (maybe 50) and see what the results are, naked vs. not naked *wonders how many strange looks she'll get while crafting naked*

 

I made 18 Rings one GM blacksmith and not one exceptional. I'n my opinion I think crafting is not working like it is supposed to. I do know for a fact the enchanting menu has issues. I will successfully enchant an item and then instead of enchanting it. Another item and mats with stack on top of what was being enchanted. I am confident in time it will all come together and be better than ever.

 

Did you batch craft them? Can't be exceptional if you batch craft.

 

Single crafted them of course.

 

Good thing I was going for enchanting gains so all is good .

 

@Tony3 Out of curiosity with the nature of the thread, what armor type were you wearing during the crafting? Plate, Chain, Leather, Cloth?

 

I rock bronze epic plate = + 8 to 11's

 

Welcome to "Portalarium" math as we call it. I have actually posted real data on success rate for master crafting and you are right, the chances are nowhere near what the table tells you.

the same goes for applying the mastercraft buffs to them. I currently have 92% then 70% on my first and second attempts and blow them up probably 50% of the time.

Note, I have probably turned 5K copper into bronze chain pieces since release so I have a lot of time into my analytics of these numbers.

 

Perhaps the devs could turn on rolls for logging, so we can get a look at the number sets.

Last night, with 93% gathering, I failed 1 out of 3 attempts for about 10 minutes straight.

When crafting, I do notice trends when making components, and will go do 1-3 combines when it appears that the next exceptional will pop. (can't batch that obviously)

 

25% critical succes rate can also be converted to 75% Fail rate, everytime you try craft +1 item

now does that sound more accurate?

i maby someday craft 100 bearhats to get some numbers to share.

 

What about 5 times failure in a row while trying to harvest a ore node with 91% success rate? I have those occasionally... and think it is related to time/weather or something

But then again I had my first 6x Meticulous yesterday

 

23% critical succes change
33x +1 bear hats of 100. seems i got lucky

 

I think they're using the same math X-Com uses

 

I craft 50 swords at a time and have crafted 131 necklaces in a sitting... I'm usually around 25% (as high as 31% and a low as 18%). Today I crafted 56 pieces of chainmail and 13 were exceptional.

It's tough to glean anything from small sample sizes as you start to see patterns where there are none. I've crafted a lot and I think the RNG is working as intended.

 

You caught me. It was all a ruse to see how many people I could get to craft naked!

Speaking of naked blacksmithing, another 20 daggers today and 5 of the +1's. I enjoy the cool breeze next to the hot forge!

 

Ive made about 15 bronze chain chest pieces (very expensive) with a 25% chance and 0 to show for it.