[As Designed] Unable to create exceptional shield after 9 attempts with 28% chance.

The title says it all. I created 9 bronze shields and none of them came out exceptional. My blacksmithing skill is 108, and I am crafting at a +5 blacksmith table with smithing hammer of prosperity. The exceptional chance shows 28%.

28% is a little less than 1/3 chance, so according to my odds, I should have crafted about 3 out of nine attempts exceptional shields. I didn't even get one. This is certainly a bug. If it is intentional, then the 28% is misleading.

 

Statistically I don't see a problem is here ...

You can flip a coin 20 times and only get heads 3 times ...

 

A coin has two sides, so flipping should give you a 50/50 chance. Flip it 20 times and you should get heads about 10 times plus or minus a few. My initial report is still a bug as I see it.

One way to fix this is by using the following technique, which I have used in several applications that I have developed.

Suppose you give a 30% chance for success. You randomize a pool of 10 values from 1 to 10 and store it. Example:

3, 7, 5, 9, 2, 10, 1, 4, 6, 8

So during crafting, the first value in the randomization is a 3, so you get an exceptional item.
The second value is a 7, so it is a regular item. Same with the third and fourth value.
The fifth value is a 2, and therefor an exceptional item, and so on.

If the skill increases to 40%, then continue with the remaining values in the list using %40.

Once the end of the list is reached, randomize again.

This will make the crafting experience much less frustrating.

Keep the range of the list as short as possible. If I see 28%, then the randomized list should contain 100 values.