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GCotO Buy+Sell ATM (Current median price: 2450 gold per coto)

Discussion in 'Commodities (WTS/WTB COTOs, Resources, Components)' started by Umuri, Aug 19, 2016.

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  1. Umuri

    Umuri Avatar

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    So I'm trying a new idea, we'll see how well it works:

    The vendor I am leasing in owl's head, COTOs ATM BuySell, ( just up the main road 3rd on the right under an obsidian tower ) has now been stocked with a couple hundred of CotOs worth of buy and sell orders, at various prices that converge towards each other. I will be restocking it multiple times throughout the weekend, and as the depth builds it should make it easier to gauge a particular price at any given point in time, acting as a buy/sell order book on a forex market.





    Current Median Price: 2450gold per coto
    Coto buy price deviation: 75 gold (Up to 2525)
    Coto sell price deviation: 50 gold (Down to 2400)



    These deviations are the prices that generally sell within 6-12 hours from being posted.
    So if median is 1k, and the buy deviation is 100, then a coto selling off a vendor for <=1100 gold per coto will be gone within 6 hours in a well traveled area.
    Likewise, if the median is 1k, and a sell deviation is 50, an offer to buy cotos will be filled if it's >= 950 within 6 hours in a well travelled area.

    For bulk(50+) coto buys/sells, pm me, and i'll let you know what i can do near the current price, usually within 12 hours. For 100+ orders I can usually get pretty close to current median.


    The price listed is the price that when i restock, the buy/sell sides converge towards. There is always at least 1/10th the inventory available near(+/- 50 to allow movement) this price per restock, but it always goes fast

    Vendor selling cotos drives price up, vendor buying lowers price

    Hopefully this will make price discovery of Current CotO's a little easier, as people can come buy and sell at whatever price point they see fit.

    So yes, if you have GCoto's, and need cash now, stop by and sell them!
    If you have GCoto's and can wait, stop by the vendor to use it as price discovery to find what point people stopped buying at.
    If you need GCoto's immediately, stop by and buy them!
    If you need GCoto's and can wait, stop by the vendor and use it as price discovery to find out what point people stop selling at!
     
    Last edited: Oct 18, 2017
  2. Umuri

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    Bump/restock/update, and a friendly reminder:

    The prices I'm posting are based of what -is- selling and buying on my vendors within ~6-12 hours of listing.
    I am now also including deviation value. meaning how far away from median each side is selling/buying, to allow for a better idea.

    Why do this?
    Averages based on what prices are listed on vendors are generally unreliable, as you must remember that anything you see for sale, 95% of the time, is stuff that isn't selling because anything priced to sell has already sold.

    Also i'm glad to see so many coto ATM vendors have popped up since i started this experiment, it does add liquidity to the market. But remember, if the stock on a vendor is the same every day, their prices aren't moving stock.

    Example below is the vendor roughly 2 hours after a restock, notice prices have already converged to their respective ranges:[​IMG]
     
    Last edited: Sep 13, 2016
  3. Yipp

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    Really appreciate the information you are providing the community.... Even though it show I way overpaid for the ones I bought... :)
     
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  4. Bom

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    I wonder how quickly the price of CotOs will rise after 675 taxed lot deeds are passed out.
     
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  5. Zapatos80

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    That's a great initiative, really much less of a headache to search for CotOs when my potions wear off :)
     
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  6. Umuri

    Umuri Avatar

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    Weekly update:

    Prices have taken a sharp nosedive over the past few days, due mainly to one new supplier(willing to go as low as 850 per!) when he dumps(between me and three other sellers i've talked to, he's dumped over 3000 cotos so far this week), and two new sellers who are trying to undercut each other in what combined may be an effort to price-fix the market.
     
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  7. Yipp

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    UGH... I so overpaid for my coto's! Been converting gold in to coto's forever... probably at the 1300-1350 average price. I could sure use 100 at 900 or below to average down... :)
     
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  8. Umuri

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    Restocked and ticker/averages updated.
    Also a reminder there are vendors in both owls head (3rd on the right down the main road, obsidian tower, titled Rewards and Coto) and Brittany alleys (heads towards bank, it's on the left after the first left and mentioned that it's a GCOTO ATM buy/sell.
    The alleys split is much higher due to low volume but as people use it more flow to it and it has more each restock.


    News for the past week:
    The market price discovery continues, with four new vendors opening and one doing a grand re-opening and advertising blitz. In addition the supply side seems to have lowered a bit from the speculators. In addition the lots requiring taxes has put some new demand pressure up while lowering the supply.

    What this means for you?
    Price deviation is now at 100 +/-, which is the lowest it's ever been. In the past it's been closer to 200 or higher. This means the market is settling a bit and people are more sure of the value. Usually this is indicative of a market maturing or stabilizing, but isn't a guarantee. It does however mean that the buy/sell gap is closing.
     
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  9. Umuri

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    Sorry for the delay, this weeks coto news:
    With the public announcement of the new coto vendors, speculation is running wild, and a re-apperance of an old buyer on the market has shifted things greatly. While coto demand has gone up, 70% of the sales are due to this old buyer returning, and making a huge powerplay, so it is possible they are doing this to give a perception of coto prices going through the roof, when really the median price has only risen 50 gold, and the variance is increasing again due to these large buys (so much for nice calm weeks and lower deviations).

    Bonus News:
    Due to the success of this, I am debating opening another branch(to supplement alleys/owls head) as some people have mentioned that some towns have a different circuit. I will be taking suggestions in-thread on where to open this, or in pm. Also due to the success, I am almost up to enough stock to offer more granular prices (10s/25s per price step vs the old 25/50) on the vendors to allow us to tell more precisely where the demand/supply lines lie.

    What this means for you?
    Price deviation is back up to +/- 125, so the gap between buying(1250) and selling (1000) is large again. The new coto vendors are coming in, and they are already visible on dev+ so those with that access know what's for sale, how much it will be, and what it looks like, so speculation is abound right now. IT also means people who had those items trying to sell them off are now in fierce competition.
    In short: Bigger price gaps, a lot of uncertainty, and a lot of people gambling on which way it'll go. Don't get caught up in the hype or trust people who have interests in saying the coto price will crash, or go to the moon. Odds are likely this will be a small blip on the big radar and prices will stabilize within a week of the new patch.
     
  10. Umuri

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    Weekly Coto Update:
    The coto price has gone up a record 50 gold! However, the deviation has gone through the roof, more than 300% the usual! So this may not be indicative of future growth.
    People are wild speculating, buying for the new coto merchants, etc. A lot of people are making posts that imply coto price is going up faster than it is, and some of those same people are buying out all the vendors of lower prices. However, those vendors keep restocking at the lower prices, so we'll see whether this continued effort to force coto inflation will work!
    This doesn't look to be letting up this week, so we're in for at least another week of turmulent prices. Also two large players have entered the coto buying spree on the store credit/usd/paypall/ponies side, both of which add their fee (pay below market price) vs if you did the IGG->USD->COTO conversion yourself. As always, you pay for convenience, for some people that's more than worth it. Time is money. This could open up a demand in the USD that previously was under-tapped, by causing more players to turn to the marketplace vs buying in the portalarium store. Who knows!

    What this means for you?
    Shop around! Don't take someone's word on what coto prices are, everyone has an agenda to push. At the very least, always stop in to check multiple vendors owned by multiple people that have a spread of cotos at various prices. The two Umuri-brand ATM two vendors are in Owls head (4th on right), and Alleys (4th on left after first turn on main road) to see what price has been bought up (or sold down) to, to get a rough estimate for prices for that region on that day. I try to restock those at least daily if not twice a day, so they should provide a "relatively accurate" idea of what people are paying, on that day.

    Buckle up and have a good week!
     
  11. Umuri

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    Weekly Coto Update:
    Markets are settling! However, the new prices are here to stay!
    Reports from several vendors who share data with me indicate that supply is dwindling, and demand continues to increase, which includes a massive 2000+ coto order that is being filled currently through a heroic effort by multiple vendors. As supply goes down, demand goes up, which means prices are on the rise.
    In addition, the three speculative forces that joined last month have mostly settled on their positions, with final count being 1 long-term investor, 1 market mover (goal is to change price) and 1 new exchange opening with massive reach. There is still a lot of infighting with people looting vendors to ensure theirs is the only one stocked at certain times as an attempt to gain market share, but this is for us to worry about, not so much you guys. This is part of why variance is still high as some vendors are buying high and selling low to drive business around.
    So while there is still some internal fight on the prices, I can now officially say that this price raise is continued, albeit at a slower and more normalized rate, and looks to likely settle in the next few weeks as everyone entrenches their positions.

    What this means for you?
    Higher prices are here to stay, prices will probably continue to float up over the next week or two as markets normalize. Still shop around, do not go just off one vendor, or one market post, as a lot of misinformation/people trying to sneak a deal is still around. If in doubt, hold them for later.
     
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  12. Umuri

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    Weekly Coto Update:
    Markets are settling still, variance is still high but buy/sell quantities are fluctuating back towards normal. The looting of competing stores in an attempt to drive business seems to have mostly stopped, and demand is normalizing towards a steady stream. The new stores are mostly established and everyone seems to have replenished their stocks, so it looks like business is going back to normal. We'll see if this trend continues next week. Average price has again gone up, and looks to be slowly settling towards a plateau around 1600-1700, although it's been bouncing it a bit, but with such high variance it's hard to make any real conclusions there. Also it looks like another replenishment of the in-game coto spawning pool happened, as i've noticed an above average amount of valued cotos getting turned in, so that means a (minor) supply increase will occur from those who are hunting this week.
    Remember as always, in times of high variance, shop around!

    What this means for you?
    More vendors are staying stocked for longer, so less hunting should be required to find your cotos.
    Hunting high value monsters this week may payoff as cotos are dropping.
     
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  13. Umuri

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    Weekly Coto Update:
    Variance has dropped below the 200 threshold for high volatility and i can finally remove that big ugly warning! Hurray!
    Price hasn't changed much this week, but the drop in volatility is good, however recent forum remarks and some chatter on the Coto Vendor chatline indicates that we may be looking at another movement next week started by the same people who started the last one. But we'll see how things go.
    Also, upcoming telethon, which always plays havoc on Coto prices, due to the potential of another drastic sale.
    So in summary: Lots of conjecture, but the fact is we're more stable this week.
    Coto drops have slowed down, so it looks like the restocked coto supply has run low again for npc drops.
    Also, we had elven homes added to the coto vendor, the town and city, which many people have ruled the elven city home has one of the best layouts in-game currently.

    What this means for you?
    Lower volatility usually means more vendors stay stocked and prices are lower on the sell side and higher on the buy side (so more money for you guys and less gap between them).
    Be prepared for the telethon!
    If you want a city home with LOTS of open floorspace, the elven city home is now on coto vendor as of patch 510.
     
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  14. Umuri

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    Weekly Coto Update:
    Sorry this one was delayed, hope you all had a fanastic thanksgiving.
    I've had to think a bit about how i wanted to phrase this post, or whether to post it at all, but i figured what the heck, lets keep the news flowing.
    The past few weeks have been publicly pretty peaceful, however in the background some very interesting market action has been happening and some very interesting changes were made with this release, as well as some anouncements by devs.
    In addition, signs point to another vendor war starting up this week or next, and this one will be worse than the last because I can't afford to dump another million+ trying to stabilize it.
    I recommend no one put their entire coto supply on a vendor for the next week or two. Instead you should attempt to set up in-game trades with trusted buyers/suppliers.

    In unrelated news, i'll have an economy paper hopefully due out next week or the week after that should break down sota's economy and balance from a player perspective and hopefully, will start from knowing nothing about economy and gradually work you up, explaining concepts as we go. It's ambitious but lets see how it goes.

    What this means for you?
    Lower volatility makes prices now pretty stable across multiple vendors, but highly varied regionally, as the price goes up more people are hitting their limit and starting to sell.
    Upcoming vendor war may mean price hikes again and huge regional flux as everyone's vendor is wiped clean due to an influx of out of game currency in an effort to artificially force prices up and inflate gold's costs down to drive gold sellers out of the market, so buy with caution.

    As always, in times of high volatility, or all times really, get your news from multiple sources and never trust any one person for your economic decisions, including this post.
     
    Last edited: Dec 3, 2016
  15. Umuri

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    Apparently last two posts have vanished into the ether.... That's mildly worrying. Sorry I just now noticed.

    Recap from the last two: Vendor war shenanigans, volatility went mad, and is still higher than preferred but working with a couple other vendors we were able to contain most of the issue pre-emptively. Bad time to buy then, but volatility is dropping and prices are re-stabilizing. Given conversations i've had this may be a monthly thing for the next 2 months, i'll let you know more as I find out.

    This weekly coto update:
    In any event Coto prices are slowly re-stabilizing as this most recent vendor war subsides, but if this cycle continues expect another one in a month or so. No new major entrants into the market, although several new coto items have gone up, so demand might have a spike over the next week or two as people fill their need for these desirables.

    However there is also a supply spike as people have gained their QA testing cotos rapidly due to the last two short release cycles. So it balances out a bit.


    What this means for you?
    Now is a good time to buy your christmas gifts or end of the year purchases from the add-on store, over the next week or two. Come mid january prices will probably get more volatile again if people keep their current habits.
     
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  16. Umuri

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    Closer to a week this time!
    However over near years, there's really not much to report.
    Market's been quieter, both in variance, and in purchases, than it has in many months.
    Even our vendor war starters seemed to have taken a break this month in celebration of the new year. knock on wood.
    Price only raised 25 gold average this week, and even dropped for a couple days.
    But due to the low volume, this is not indicative of the economy as a whole, and may just be everyone taking a break for the holidays.
    Lets see how it picks back up next week.


    What this means for you:
    Good time to buy/sell without regret for the next week or so, most vendors should have relatively similar stocks/buys with very little infighting, but as always check around a bit in case someone is trying to gouge.
     
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  17. Umuri

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    So as evidenced, it's been slow enough to not really warrant a news post the past few weeks.
    There's been a small uptick in market activity this past week due usually to the approaching release/a lot of people time their taxes with releases, also some anticipated items in the next one.
    But for the most part, it's a nice calm market. Price barely moved, the existing vendors are growing and adding market depth, and no one's done anything silly(just yet).

    What this means for you:
    Smooth sailing, the changes coming next patch shouldn't have too big an impact, and price is stable. Good time to buy for the future.
     
  18. Umuri

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    So, the changes from the next patch had a much larger impact than previously anticipated due to Atos's wonderful last minute gift he snuck into it. In addition, another vendor war has started in the past week , but it seems to be a much more muted one this time around, so maybe the warnings and repeated lectures have finally sunken in.

    Expect to see prices rise over the next week or two, and expect to see supplies relatively shortened. However due to its reduced strength, and the strength of those who are working against it, i expect it to be a much more muted rise.

    What this means for you:
    Buyer beware! In times of flux price could go up, could go down, although I personally am betting on a decent rise over the next two weeks.

    Bonus Segment:
    Artifacts.

    We have a lot to talk about here, so i'll just run through the basics, as a gimme gift for the loyal readers who check every one of these.
    The prices the artifacts are currently going does not accurately reflect some of their rarities. Especially since some people still believe the first day/week drop rates.
    Some rare artifacts (don't drop as much) are currently cheap while a few relatively common ones(drop a lot more) are high in price due to their utility. A lot of money can be gained or lost by speculating, so don't rush into business deals.
    The special abilities of some artifacts have been figured out, but some are still waiting to be discovered.

    However from an economic standpoint, these artifacts are a huge inflationary effect and a huge consolidation of wealth into a few farming groups, who will then have this wealth to spend. It will probably have a secondary effect on crafted good sales and services, so if you have a business or marketing venture, now's a time you may find some newly wealthy clients.
     
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  19. Umuri

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    Changes leading up to the next patch has caused an increase in traffic, but nothing that doesn't look like the regular movements as people pay their taxes/stock up for incoming items. This was also coupled by the multitude of in-game auctions and purchases going on, which also had a few bumps in the coto traffic as well.
    A couple vendors closed shop these past two weeks, and only two opened up. That's a shame, but that just means the market's approaching it's percieved ideal depth, and has a great effect on price discovery assuming most aren't bad actors, which they aren't.
    Prices have lowered in variance, and the market has settled down again. Price has actually dropped slightly since our last benchmark, although it's been fluctuating over the past two weeks. Part of this is because the market has matured, and part of it is because of the shenanigans with the artifact market. In any event, good news for you guys!

    What this means for you:
    The coto market is healthy right now, trades are flowing but no huge jumps or people pushing on it past it's capacity.
    Good time to buy, decent time to sell, smooth market for the next week or so I predict. As always, cotos are your decent hedge against inflation.
     
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  20. Umuri

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    Price has actually dropped since last benchmark, but variance has been increasing. This is mostly due to people "Snapping up" orders above a certain level and ignoring the rest.
    Reminder that my particular price benchmarks are for items that sell within 6-12 hours of being listed, as what is being percieved as the "buy it now" price or "sell it now" price for people. These should not be taken as absolute price ranges, but instead as what you can most likely move "quickly".
    However I will say the burst buys (new release items, bulk trades) have been lower this release, most of the buys have been smaller tax-paying friendly quantities, which is good for long term.

    In another vein of discussion, however GCoto as an M2 money supply has been booming and stabilizing, and using cotos directly in trade has (in my data) started to level up as a percentage of high value trades, which shows an indirect confidence in their stability as well as people's viewpoint of how the economy moves as a whole. I believe this will last for a while, until the next big changeup on cotos price/distribution/usage, which iirc(could be wrong) is not slated until summer of this year.

    But the next release will be rather interesting so who knows!

    Given the maturity of the coto market, I will be doing these probably once every two weeks or so, but in periods of high news i will do them more often.

    What this means for you:
    Still healthy, market seems quite happy with it's current depth/breadth.
    COTOs themselves are pretty widely accepted now as direct trade material, so there is even less risk "hedging" gold inflation by storing into cotos in the short term (next 3 releases).
     
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