NB Astronomy resumes..

It looks like you've been keeping track of the signs in the sky, but what if there is more than one thing that specifies the sieges? For example, moongates in Ultima games used the phases of the two moons to determine the source/target locations. One would anchor it to a source, while the other would shift the target. Could there be a second value that determines either the length or location of sieges?

 

It almost looks like the towns are each associated with a single virtue, but can have sieges in the six months surrounding that. For example, Resolute is Courage so it is centered on May (but ironically, didn't see any during that month on this year). It does show sieges in Feb, Mar and Apr, as well as Jul and Aug.

Others match this almost exactly; let's say Kiln is based on Justice, so is centered in Oct. It shows sieges every month from Jul to Jan. They all seem to fall into this pattern. The city may have a higher chance of siege during its "month", but some chance for any of the three months on either side, so the pattern would only be predictable in the general sense of "which five months can I always get to this town".

So, if that assumption is correct, I'd say:

• Aerie, city of Truth, could come under siege between Dec and Jun
• Ardoris, city of Love, could come under siege between Jan and Jul
• Resolute, city of Courage, could come under siege between Feb and Aug
  
• Brookside seems to be related to Compassion, as it shows sieges between May and Nov
• Eastmarch seems to be related to Humilty, and shows sieges from Nov to May
• Etceter is probably related to Honesty, and has sieges from Apr to Oct
• Fortus End is probably related to Honor, and shows sieges from Sep to Apr
• Kiln is related to Justice, and shows sieges from Jul to Jan
• Northwood is likely related to Sacrifice, and shows sieges from Aug to Feb
• Jaanaford may be related to Spirituality, and shows sieges from Oct to Apr

Not sure how accurate that is, but its my guess based on the data we have so far.

 

The current problem with this is that the data from the previous year appears identical. Where as we would expect the siege schedule to change every year.. so far this doesn't appear to be the case.

Not to dismiss the idea entirely. The scope of the data is still pretty limited and deviations in the schedule from year to year could be very small in some cases.

 

This is pretty close to my latest theory. But taking Fortus End as an example.. some of the data implies sieges being very short and starting up again.. every 2 hours for a time. Which, if it is the town of Honor.. may imply the siege frequency and duration is related to the related planet's orbital times.. in this case.. 2 hours. At one time.. Northwood has a similarly fast pattern and it's planet's orbit (if it is indeed Sacrifice) is 3 hours. These would be the easiest towns to watch as a test case.

 

That is interesting, and could help predict how long you'd have to wait for a siege to end. That would be a way to help us pinpoint which town is associated with which virtue, as well.

I do wonder how POT sieges will fit in to this, or if they will be limited to Courage, Truth and Love only, as those are the available Titan statues.

 

Well if you wanted.. you could apply Truth, Love and Courage to any one of the virtues. For example.. have statues to Truth and Love.. you get Justice. Just follow the classic virtue system. Humility would be left out in the cold but perhaps a separate statue or building for that.. Player towns though I imagine would be more random.. perhaps a % chance based on how many towns have the same statues. Otherwise half the map would be covered in flaming catapults year around.

 

Ok.. I have a little more time.. I'd kind of like to continue my color analysis but the more I plug away at it the less it seems to want to cooperate. Perhaps it's trying to dig a little too deep. Would've been cool if it worked..

To expand a little on our working theory so far.. and translating it back into astronomy..

Each city is associated with a constellation that must be visible in the sky in order for a siege to occur.

Aerie, The Book
Ardoris, The Candle
Resolute, The Bell
Brookside, The Heart
Eastmarch, The Crook
Etceter, The Hand
Fortus End, The Chalice
Kiln, The Scales
Northwood, The Tear
Jaanaford, The Ankh

What's really getting to me is that some virtues are missing. There are 12 constellations in play.. 11 if we drop infinity.. but only 10 cities.. we're missing a town for Valor..

The fact that Resolute has no sieges directly under the Bell or the Sword still seems odd to me.

 

Thinking about it, I'm surprised that Estgard isn't Valor...

I'm assuming Infinity and Chaos are unlinked constellations, although they might fit into the story down the road somewhere.

 

I was a little surprised only towns on the mainland are affected. I was initially expecting at least one town on Norgard or Elysium would be sieged. Having 10 towns seems odd.

 

Jaanaford Siege Jan 15 507 PC

 

So thanks to Starr we have a name for one of the Cabalists..

If my theory is true about the cabalist name's being the same as the planets.. then this is a potential name for the Red planet. The name being Nosfario. Whom I suspect would relate to the anti-virtue or courage/valor.. being cowardice. I would expect this cabalist to be laying siege to Resolute or a Courage/Valor related town.

 

Ardoris Siege March 3 507 PC. For a reputed City of Love it sure gets attacked a lot

 

Yes but only during the months of March through June. Just fiddling with an idea here.. Our yellow planet has an orbital time of 17 hours.. So looking at the number of days between known new sieges for 506..

New sieges were recorded on March 6th, April 15th, May 10th and June 5th. A siege was recorded on the 17th but it's possible it was the same was as the 5th.

So.. from March 6 to April 15.. is 38 days.
April 15 to May 10 is 23 days..
May 10 to June 5 is 23 days.

I note these gaps are large enough to fit in multiples of 17 (either 1 or 2)..

So how's this for a working theory.. and bringing back the notion (as @LoneStranger recently brought up) the possibility of multiple factors. That both the constellation AND the planet needs to be visible.

Let me test that with some numbers.. let's verify where our friendly yellow planet of love is on these dates..

Year 506.. * 336 days per year.. = 170,016.. plus March 6th.. 2 * 28 + 6 = 62 - 1 = 170,077... / 17 = 10,004.53.. hrmm 53% through it's current orbit..

Well ok.. not what I was hoping for but let's keep going..

April 15.. 3*28 + 15 -1 | 170,114 / 17 = 10,006.71... 71%
May 10... 4*28 + 10 - 1 | 170,137 / 17 = 10,008.06 6%
June 5... 5*28 + 5 - 1 | 170,160 / 17 = 10,009.41 41%

So yellow's position in it's orbit on these days are..

Mar 6: 53%
Apr 15: 71%
May 10: 6%
Jun 5: 41%

At an orbital time of 17 hours it completes about 6% of it's orbit per hour. It's in the sky from 75% - 25% (zenith at 0%)

So what I'm aiming for here is to see what the dates during this time Yellow is actually visible. Can the siege times fit within those dates?

For Mar 6 we must recall there was no siege recorded in on or before Feb 21..

at 53% we need to backtrack to 25%.. 53-25 = 28.. / 6 = 4.67.. So on March 1st Yellow is setting on the horitzon but would've been visible..

We could speculate under the assumption that the planet much be visible for a siege to begin.. that the siege on March 6 began either March 1st.. or between Feb 22 and March 1st..
If they begin at midnight.. then this siege should have begun on Feb 25th if my math is right.

Just based on that the other start times should be.. March 15, April 4, April 21, May 10, May 28, Jun 17

If we consider these could also be dates sieges end.. so they last 17 hours and are 17 hours apart.. ?

Siege begins Feb 22 and ends March 15.. begin April 4th, ends April 21, Begins May 10.. ends May 28th..

bah.. the only siege that doesn't fit that pattern is Jun 5th.

 

Originally i suspected that towns with the blue shield barrier would be excempt from sieges but seems that's wrong

 

They did seem to leave that impression very early on didn't they?

 

I didn't think towers would make towns exempt from sieges, but less likely targets. I recall early on, they talked about choosing to live in a protected city would make you less likely to have the disruption of a siege than living in a unprotected village.

Moon towers should definitely have an effect here. Even the small amount of lore we have so far tells us that. From Arabella in Update #48:

 

Etceter Siege April 22 507PC

 

April 22 hmm that changes some of the data slightly. First recorded Etceter siege in April.

 

So, maybe it's been explained earlier but what's the physics behind the game's astronomy?

Are those bodies in the sky orbiting the game world or vice versa, there doesn't appear to be any orbital plane.

 

It's a geocentric model.