Observation on Crafting Enjoyment: Deco vs. Armor/Weapons

That should be extremely easy to do.. especially if you harvest your own materials. By the time I come out of the mines I've already earned a small profit just picking up the gold from the mobs more than pays for the processing of materials.

 

i had +5 mining gloves, prospector tool, and gargoyle ax's, in a guard zone such as delucia in felucca, you could mine double, mining in felucca was great. I never mined in tram; that was insane in comparison.

 

It was still not fun and certainly not "10x more fun". No matter what gear you had our where you did it, it still sucked.

 

There are super low prices all over the place, you can throw a rock in a random direction and hit 20 pieces of gear that cost 10x more for the crafter to make than she is charging.

But you would have to know how much things cost in raw materials in order to understand this, and all of your claims on how much you get, how easy it is to get a +14, how many items break, are mathematically false.

Roughly 1 in 4 chance. A Epic Fustian Chest takes 10 Bolts of Fustian Cloth, at current market prices each one consumes 512g worth of mats. With fuel and a bone needle, and assuming an invincible scissor, each piece costs you 5137 to make. Average cost for that +1 is a little over 20k.

With the socket you have +2, and have on average spent a little under 21k for the 3 crappy and 1 good (yes you can sell the 3 crappy for a loss as well, as you pointed out, I personally split the value at .7 for crappy, 1.9 for Exceptional at the moment, do as you please.)

This is one area that my model could use some beefing up, anyone know the chance of low/medium/high enhancements? Without the numbers in front of me, though, I don't for a second believe you get 2 specials (on MW or Enchants, either way) and 3 Mediums every time.

Out of the 4 Exceptionals, if you are level 100 crafter and are going for a 2x3, only 1.35 of those is going to survive the process, or 27.82%. The rest were destroyed. So if you managed to nail that super piece of gear every time you make gear (amazing!) then your cost for that piece was only 39,430g. But you didn't, because no one gets the super duper rolls every time.

So you actually had to go for a 3x3, minimum. Bringing your chance of not blowing up down to 12.63%, and your average cost to 95,303 for a success at today's prices.

That's still not the chance of getting the Uber gear you are looking for. With 3x3 you need an average of +2 per enhancement. Again, would love to see some data but I think that the average is probably more toward somewhere between +1 and +2, not an even +2.

So, just for fun, if you have to go for a 3/4, you're blowing up 98.22 out of every 100 of them (at skill level 100.) Bringing your cost to 739,498g.

You're right, it's not a million gold, I had my spreadsheet shooting out numbers for pricing exceptional gear higher, and non exceptional gear at under cost.

It's only 739,498g.

You can make 2. And they are in no way guaranteed to be +14. For your +14 you may be looking at 3/4 of a million because you need that 3x4. Even then you might be unlucky, and you get some more +1's and not enough +3's.

Most of them do disappear.

But I'm glad to see we're back to the point, which is whether or not you can sell gear and break even (or make a profit!) or if you are just subsidizing other players. Right now most crafters are subsidizing everyone else.

If that continues it is very, very, very bad for the game, as it will eventually become widely accepted across the interwebs that no matter what you think of the rest of SotA, crafting sucks because you always lose money at it.

And thanks crafters! Some of us see your sacrifice.

 

I can see we have very different perspectives on this, but I don't think you can have a discussion about crafting without including economic considerations. Even those that craft just for themselves sell a thing or two along the way, and for most that craft, I think they ultimately want to be rewarded economically for that effort. For most people who just want nice gear, it's far easier to adventure for gold and just buy it.

But the question is "how do you determine fair?" Is fair the cost of materials plus 10%? Is it that plus some gold amount that you value your time at? Do you consider average pricing in your assessment of fairness? Because none of that stuff is really about 'fairness'; it's simply an evaluation of market conditions.

Without taking in outliers of people who list stuff at random prices or similar irrational practices, most people are rational and assign some 'value' to things that is a composite of many factors including raw material cost, time, effort, ect. When you see a day one player put up a far out of average price on something, that's likely a test of the market rather than their assessment of value. Over time, those players eventually see what marketable prices are and then decide if those prices support the raw material cost, time, effort, ect. to produce and sell those goods.

I took it as you were stating what things you think drive pricing; but, regardless I think perceived value is equivalent to real value when trades are conducted based on that value. Things are worth whatever someone will pay for them. Once all the high paying customers dry up and high price demand falls, prices may fall with it, if there is enough margin in it. I disagree that basic economic principles don't apply to the vast majority of players. Goods cost gold that takes time and effort to collect (just like money in the real world). Players make decisions on how to spend that gold based on the time and effort it took them to collect it. And I agree, that other factors influence valuation beyond time spent. I even think that 'time' is a relative factor in that for someone who spends 80 hours a week, 8 hours to produce something probably has a different value than for someone who spends 10 hours a week. But particularly for something like ore (or things made from the products of ore), I think buyers are willing to pay a premium to avoid the time spent in the mines.

These are good ideas, and at least partially in game (lot tax, deed raffle), but still the rich get richer . The art of the 'gold sink' to get an optimal distribution of wealth is really challenging. The supply side of the equation is easier to tweak.

Like I said in the OP, I found deco crafting more fun, and part of that reason is because the material cost seems a lot closer to the product sell price for a lot of things. The economic aspect of crafting is part of the fun factor for me and I think having a viable 'middle class' of crafters would improve the experience for a lot of people.

 

Statistics only tell you so much. You need to add common sense into the equation too. If I get 2 really good enchants and 2 really good mw's on a piece I stop right there and sell it. Unless I'm trying to make a specific item for someone, I only go to the 3rd stage if all the other buffs stink.

I grow my cotton and it costs me around 3k to make those fustian chest pieces.

And obviously the +3's don't always come up, but they come up quite a bit. Sometimes I even wait to socket the gem until I get a major because on some specific gem types I wouldn't want both +3's.

 

How about 5x better.. more ore types, +5 gloves, double ore, prospector tool, an ax that spawns elementals and upgrades the ore. And Technically I could name the ore types that arnt in this game, to prove my point, but I wont. [ hint 7 other colors] =-) And the marble had colors.

 

Double click... tink, tink, tink... nothing. Take a step... double click... tink, tink, tink... nothing. Take a step... double click... tink, tink, tink... nothing. Take a step... double click... tink, tink, tink... nothing....

 

It was crunch crunch crunch, looking for the ore deposit that maybe I have been over looking. however, it is sota that sounds like - tink tink tink, with the cheap made ax, run -run to the next spot.

 

Best debate evar!!!!

 

So then you're probably not making +14's, or if you do you've front loaded them with "stinky" buffs?

And lots of people make their metal armor from metal they mine. The opportunity cost is the sale price you would have gotten for the raw materials.

A crafter would hope to turn that opportunity cost into some sort of profit by selling gear at a price that makes up for it (or at least not lose money) but I'm afraid you're probably still subsidizing others.

You also keep going back to the actual cost of making 1 piece, but that isn't the cost at all.

If you rarely go past 2x2, that explains why you don't think think the higher level stuff is very expensive. 2x2 is 61% success chance, not bad! 2x3 drops that success to 27%, and 3x3 to 12%. It gets brutal real quick.

 

It's also a fair point that there can be a great divergence in utility between two +14 pieces resulting in different prices.

 

And if you get unlucky and fail more than expected, his numbers are low. The point of statistics is that over time these variations even out. It doesn't matter that you can get lucky once, it matters what results are over time, and that's what statistics gives you. People price based on statistics so that the extra profit from a lucky craft cancels out the negative profit from an unlucky one.

Also, the opportunity cost of gathering your own materials has a gold value equal to what it would cost to buy it (because you could just sell those materials at market price).

 

Very fair, and the one thing I don't know how to accurately model yet.

 

I hope they eventually get rid of this bit of randomness. Isn't the chance of destroying the item enough? Why do we also need to pray to RNGesus to not be screwed by terrible selection of enchanting/MW? This is especially important given that now effects from later masterworks are better. It should just give you a list of everything you can make and let you pick.

 

Just so that I know I was being clear. My point was that ultimately, a lot of players don't price with economics in mind. So I was not attempting to imply anything regarding the economic influences one way or the other. That said, we do not really have a fully functional economy as it is.

That would be up to the individual.. but if it costs me 1,000 gold in resources to craft a suit of armor.. I wouldn't consider a 1M price tag to be fair. Odds are I've already made a profit from the loot I earned gathering those resources.

Problem is they rarely seem to be using any kind of standard. There's nothing that really says "a new +1 sword is worth X" Also I don't think I'd go so far as to say "most people".. I would believe that of those who take that aspect of the game seriously, but people who just have a merchant because they can.. not so much.

Not as such as a whole but as key reasons why prices in general are high. In the real world there are many more regulating factors including established values for currency where you wouldn't say a $2 mug is worth $2,000, But when you have situations like we have now in SotA people can jack up the price and who's to say it's fair or ridiculous? There's so little to compare it to.

I didn't say principles don't apply.. I'm saying certain factors don't exist or are completely different. Basic principle always applies to some degree.. but what's to say for example.. what a gold coin is worth from player to player? If you took one to a judge they wouldn't be able to look it up and say.. the value of 1 gold is X. It's entirely subject to the player's opinion. I could say.. mining as a job is worth 500 gold an hour.. but you might say it's worth 10,000 gold per hour.. where as in a real economy you could probably look it up.. if you have this job your pay is going to be from X to Y..

So when you say people decide on a price based on all these factors.. yeah.. in their opinion. 'cause there is no standard upon which to base an opinion.

Problem I have here is that the final value is far from decided. Just imagine for example.. how perceived value will change when currency goes multi-tier and have weight. I recently asked about multi-tier currency and the answer was basically "we still want to do it and already know how.. it's just not a high priority"

Now imagine if NPC merchants were limited to spending X gold on buying new goods and they only bought what was relevant to them? No more of this baker buys 20 rusty swords stuff.. Is that 1 million gold suit of armor still going to be worth 1 million gold? and might that player have been better off not spending so much? Granted.. now is now.. but the point being it's an incomplete economy

 

And this is where I find a huge problem in most pricing. It's completely possible to have a +9-12 that is so much better than a +14. Yet people will charge more for the +14.

Not me, I don't care what you spent to get to where you are. I don't care what you spent to make that particular item. All I care about are the stats on that particular piece.

If a +8 or +9 is better than a +14, than to me it's worth more. First off, because it has better buffs. And secondly because it has the potential to get even better if you want to risk it.

Vladamir, you make some great points about opportunity cost and I love the statistics. I think the big problem I have with pricing are the 2/2's that get great buffs and people try to charge crazy amounts for.

I agree with you, pricing on anything above a 2/2 can get up there. But a lot of people are taking advantage of others not understanding how the system works. Those 2/2 are easy to crank out and the prices should reflect that.

 

All of your points are well taken, but this, I'm pretty far away on. I consider time and skill leveling part of the cost of crafting and loot a product of adventuring.

Yes, in my opinion, when two people agree on price and an exchange is completed, that's what makes a market. New markets have high volatility as ours does as price discovery is conducted. I agree that the market is incomplete and evolving, but I disagree that it's not real; it's just that what's real today may not be real tomorrow.

Liquidity crisis?

 

Technically I never said it wasn't real either.. least not in the sense we're talking about. A problem as I see it though is that players (in general) do not appreciate that things can and will change. By Portalarium's internal definition we're still technically in pre-alpha.. yet player's act as if nearly all things now are as they should be.. and it suddenly comes as a shock when something gets whacked with the 'nerf stick'. The concern and outrage of 'nerfing' the mines for example. Player's expectations were well settled until we discovered that Serpent's Spine was suddenly near useless as a mine. Likewise I think people have locked in their expectations of the economy.. when there's a long ways to go yet.

So do you abandon all loot left behind while mining then? There is now safe mining spots.. you can adventure without mining.. but you're pretty hard pressed these days to be able to mine without adventuring. They will always overlap this way.. adventuring is part of mining.. even more so with the changes to the mines.

 

This economy is working. It is just not satisfactory yet because there are not enough participants. The price for an item is irrelevant if no one buys it. Just because someone has a mug he took off an NPC table on sale for $1000, that does not mean the mug has a value of $1000, it means that mug will still be on the vendor a year from now. The supply of those mugs is tremendous so the "value" is low, perhaps difficult to sell at $1. We should not use the words price and value interchangeably. They are not the same. Prices set above value to the customers will net no economic activity. The Price does not establish the value of an item. All items for sale right now will either sell or sit on the vendor depending on the value of the item. Eventually everyone will be selling at the balance point. The price of ores in the game are at that point. Silver sells for 64 to 69 gold per on almost any vendor you visit. Customers expect this price when they visit a vendor and will not buy if the price is 74 per. The demand for iron ore is going to go up in the near future when the impact of the mine overhaul is felt. Iron will become rarer and the price is going to go up from the current 49 to 55 per ore perhaps to the 55 to 60 range. Nothing good comes from price fixing as determined by some important government or private agent. People naturally demand less and less as the price increases. The balance between supply and demand is always where the economic activity will occur.

It does no one any good to complain about people who are out in the market at this moment buying up iron because they know the price is going up. It is economic laziness to not take advantage of this opportunity. Call outs for someone to set the price in this game to 50 per would make no sense. The value of the ore in this case is higher because it is rarer (supply curve goes down) and now intersects the demand curve at a higher equilibrium point.