The BROKEN 3rd Ench/Mtrwrk percentile

Hey folks, I know this is a topic for the crafting channel BUT I feel it’s important enough to be here and there.

I’ve been crafting in SoTA since persistence and my Enchanting and Masterworking skills are up 48% – 49% on the 3rd tier. I do A LOT of Ench & Masterworking, A LOT. I’ve kept stats on this for the last few weeks and through the lasts 340 3rd Ench and masterworks I performed only 57 made it, WTF … that would make it x3 lover percent wise than stated. This is super frustrating.

Let’s NOT EVEN talk about how much materials are wasted. Let’s look into an ERROR somewhere in the math OR if there are other factors affecting this WE NEED TO KNOW. Just last night I was making wands for a friend, 13 wands made it to 3rd Ench and out of the 13 w/ 48% stated success 2 made it. This morning I made 7 necklaces & all 7 made it to 3rd Ench and GUESS WHAT -- NONE made it though the 3rd Ench.


Again, if the chance is lowered from some factor PLEASE REFLECT it in the percentile shown, otherwise your “crafting” “Richard & Starr Long” is very disappointing and misleading.


I am aware its Randomly Generated, but statistics reflect the chances correctly. Please look into the MATH behind the scenes and either fix this or let us know what IF there are other factors that play into this which erroneously are not being shown.



Thanks you,



Fzol

 

Something, something about the RNG is perfect and discussing it isn't allowed.
Congrats ! Your posting some of those *impossible stats* that people talked about, but obviously your lieing or you would post a SS.
And even if you have a SS, theres clearly someone out there that had closer to 300+ succeed! So because you can't see the numbers overall, we are going to dismiss your concerns and comment.

(this is just me summarizing how all the other topics went)

- I made a post about wanting to see SS of these *impossible odds* that i find happen to me, and my guildmates ALL THE TIME. But it got spammed out and listed as *trolling*.


IMO - The RNG has issues, or at least some of the skills / actions involved seem to have bug issues. But im sick of being deleted/warned and trolled everytime i bring it up. So i just don't craft and play less.

 

That is the very reason I don't craft any more. Sick and tired of destroying materials. Need to change the penalty to something like "You failed to master craft that item please try again later. In xx min you can try this item again."
This bull **** of destroying every thing has got to go ! That is entirely to much wasted materials that is all ready to time consuming to get and process. Get your **** together Richard and Starr.
(Make This Game Fun Again ! (DJT)).

 

It's perfectly possible that there is an issue though from any one player's perspective there's no way of knowing such is the nature of random number generation. There's only two ways to confirm 1) look at the stats server wide 2) look at the code either way you'll need a Dev involved.

 

I did many post complaining about that, if they open the API we do the query our own, cause if the query and data are the same of the cashflow with Bloodriver outskirt UP, they will just say all work properly, as Always. It's like the perception of fire mage don't do the same damage after the patch, but is just our impressions, that's not true, so ask the fire mages that are asking me if i know a game where they can play while waiting they fix it, but ofc they will not fix it cause is just in the fire mages head.

 

Actually if the numbers are random, other players' outcomes have no impact on your dice rolls. A sample size of 340 is sufficient to measure a discrepancy that bad.

 

Yea. My problem is its not like these odds are rare..
Randbo made a pretty aggressive post about it. Hes someone who spends literally weeks mining , then days of straight crafting.. and some of the streaks hes posted are redicoulous. Its not like its 1 x to a player.. he can be off 20-30% over 1000 crafts, several days in a row. His odds should personally come closer and closer the more he does... not continiously have these *rareities*
I know theres been other posts of data showing huge gaps, which have high sample sizes..
95% success rate? I can fail 3-4x, and i can have this happen several times in a few hours. Thats... ludacris odds. But as *rare * as it should be, its common enough to happen numerous times to not only an individual, but start playing with a large guild and its pretty common to see those kinds of large sample sizes, regularily not adding up.

Chris saying *looks fine to me* ... goes against the data of a lot of players who actually documented, as well as the general feeling by just doing the activity.

-----------------------------
I've come across nodes before that i fail EVERY attempt to mine it. Where i have had to re adjust/move my character manually to another spot for it to work properly.
20+ fails, till i move. So who knows maybe theres other factors/bugs that cause some of these streaks in crafting as well, but *shrug*

But like i said, the last thread discussing it got trolled out, then ended with *the RNG is fine * So i guess just deal with it. Its exactly why so many people have bailed on crafting.

 

I have posted many times about the RNG not being close to actual RNG. I too get ecstatic if I get 2/10 on my 3rd enchant which is 45% success rate.

 

I'm w/ the people who think something is funny w/ our RNG...

 

IBTL... Chris didn't just say looks fine to me, he said we were wrong and looked very angry that we still doubt the math.

As @MrBlight said its probably something else that makes the RNG "stick" maybe a communication error that pulls the same number until the server decides the tokens are secure enough ?

Indeed I think we should be asking serious questions when the RNG looks fine for combat but is so disparate on harvesting and crafting... maybe a skill check causes the lag that causes a problem ?

Either way... even if it works its very bad design to make people waste their time, to think thats what people said was wrong with full loot... you get to lose hours of your precious time... well I don't agree people should meta-think out a game like that but the fact remains, your loyal anti-full loot players are losing MUCH more time than full loot would ever do.

As we've said and been ignored again : If its not fun its not fun, the math being correct has nothing to do with this.

 

Look, people complain about this a lot. But I've never seen any evidence that there is some kind of widespread problem with the RNG. I even tracked numbers for a while(Here) and I didn't get anything close to what you're describing. Chris said he looked into it and it's fine. Human beings are notoriously bad at intuitively grasping statistics and until and unless someone presents some kind of actual proof that's more compelling than a rant post on a web forum, I will continue to argue that there is not a real problem and we should focus on the parts of crafting that actually do need work.

 

Thats what he asked for, reporting the problem in the bugs section and thats fine... people should cut him some slack. There's still the underlying issue and I'm not the one complaining, I just am drawn to say hey something is wrong here.

Nobody is saying there is a widespread inconsistency and : as Chris "subtly" suggested the rng draws numbers in a bank that is used all over the place without regards to any peculiar algorithm, adding a layer of random and thus its pretty condescending for people to doubt him in any way, he's got it together and that is not at all what I'm saying.

I'm saying if it does happen and particularly to certain people over a certain period of time and I say this because skill progression should be fun. An inverse exponential could be used as we progress towards rarer enchants and crafts (duh).

Then the server should self correct its inconsistencies...

I'm saying that and a lot of other things that seem to be mystifying and no one listens to, and many of you think I'm arrogant for using such language. But that comes from a bubble because pretty much all I know I have learned while either working for UO or freeshards out there that leave a streak of beauty so powerful that only love dwarfs its magnificence.

It is time to speak like we should speak and if the "losing time" aspect seems to trigger people's sensitive chord well I suggest we look into compromise solutions because thats what we do right ?

Right.

 

Stop fighting. I've learned that they dont care anymore. Just lean back and wait for the release, they will start work on it when it is to late.

 

Please people. There is a big difference between the PRNG itself and the formulas the PRNG is used in.

There is also the potential difference between the chance displayed on screen and the actual roll behind the scenes due to bugs etc.

So if @Mangar reports that there is an issue with the 3rd tier roll. Then we need to note that Mangar doesn't report an issue with tier 1 and 2.
Then we can conclude that Msngar's report isn't about the PRNG but rather about the formula as being used for 3rd tier roll.
Thus all this clutter about the PRNG in general instead of this 3rd tier roll specifically, is counter productive.
While if you have more data on this tier 3 roll then that is indeed helpful.

Chris didn't state that the formulas are always working perfectly, quite the opposite. Instead he said the PRNG is working as it should and that if we found anomalous results then we should add the data and report such as bugs since the display or the formula could be buggy.
https://www.shroudoftheavatar.com/f...dom-number-generator.96824/page-4#post-855066

Now agreed, he could have a much better public relations tone when stating such to not drive players into quitting frenzies.

 

I can almost accept the answer for the 3rd MW/Enchant. What i've been having a hard time with this release, is how many items i've lost on the SECOND masterwork/enchant. I've gone through so many materials, to have them explode on 80% success rate masterworks so many times i've almost thrown my keyboard. Stastically possible, but highly improbable. I don't know if materials used effect the actual chances either, but i've noticed that when I used higher tier materials (bronze, white iron, meteoric, supple instead of copper, iron, leather) more of my crafts explode. If there are other variables in the system causing this we need to have this known/reflected in the window. I lost 12 pairs of exceptional white iron pants today on the SECOND masterwork (80% success chance). That is a TON of cash turned into 20 metal scraps. I will not be crafting anymore until the crafting system gets a thorough look at. The money I have lost to stuff like this, not to mention time, is just inconceivable. This was with devotionals, +5 tables, a wayland loop, and bronze engraved tools for crying out loud.

 

That is regrettable... people on this thread aren't asking devs to make rare things more common... they'd rather want more "second hand quality" sucesses that give them the impression that their armors aren't exploding ?!% in their face for no reason... the way its setup right now its more like a lottery that you can purchase ressources in RMT and hope you get a lucky strike and make some profit. The whole idea and concept is illegal in canada, so I'm at a loss to understand how it can be sustainable.

That sounded do strange, please do not worry I'm sure Chris has come up with a solution already.

 

Yes it is broken... I start with 25+1 exceptional swords and break 2 at 95%, I break 5 more at 83% for second option, and then when i get to 45% I break 15 more and only get two +3 Enchant / MW swords.. I have done this a bunch of times and I really hate to try for the third time now.. As others have stated, I have pulled off making items for now and stockpiling my materials to use in a future date when things seem to be fixed.

 

I think some of this is pretty unfair. People should be skeptical of extraordinary claims that are only backed by anecdotal data. From the perspective of the OP, if only 57/340 enchantments with a 48% success rate succeed, then it's almost certain that either the success % is not accurate or something is broken. From the perspective of a 3rd party reading the claim, the most likely explanation, by far, is that the claim is not accurate. That's not meant to be insulting or accusatory, but it's important to understand the perspective of whoever is tasked with the job of looking into these claims.

It is a fact that even when systems with random elements are professionally audited and certified to be functioning properly, there will still be many claims by humans that those systems are broken. All the time people claim that impossible anomalies occur all the time , and almost none of the time are they able to actually document or reproduce them. The statistical anecdotes of humans are notoriously unreliable, regardless of intent or character. That doesn't mean that systems can't be broken, but the point is, claims exactly like this pop up all the time even when systems are functioning properly, so it makes no sense for a 3rd party to just accept them as accurate.

The good news is that if something is as broken as this claim indicates, then it should be very easy to reproduce. That would make a lot more sense than burning 20k+ ore on combines that are producing 1/3 expected returns.

 

The only problem with enchant or masterworks are streaks, but streaks have both side, i can have as 8 MS fail in a raw on a third MS, same i can have 6 in raw successfully. On a fourth MS things get worse ) once i get near 20 fails in a raw. But anyway 3-4 MS is high end crafting it should be hard. The best way to get 3-4 MS and ench is to make hundreds of each parts. Not saying that it should not be fixed, but imho say that it is pretty near how it should work.

 

But when your skills are high enough it's saying you have over a 40% success rate on the third try, and you're getting much less than that, it's going against the displayed number. Statistically it's going against how the number generator should be operating. Also, if the PRNG is working we shouldn't see streaks anyway, that shows that it's not randomizing. This is what the primarily complaint has been for a long time, in both cases.