Are we in a self-inflicted economic recession?

Hi All,

So I've spoken to several of my fellow merchant buddies who have all reported very low to zero sales from their NPC Vendors over the past 7 days. Speaking for myself, I've been trying to run a week long blow out sale on cotton as part of our Grand Opening Event to celebrate persistence. We're practically giving it away at $1000 gp per stacks of 100. We anticipated a huge rush, spent all of our gold churning crops to meet our predicted demand, and well...we have sold exactly zero stacks! At this point there is no ROI. Very bleak.

I polled several merchants to see what they believe the issue is for the economic freeze. Not surprisingly, 2 key reasons kept popping up at the top of the list:

1. The raffle has pretty much turned the 'player-run' economy into a distant after thought. Folks aren't playing the game anymore, they're gold farming to play a different game now: win free land of the avatar! Especially with the incentive to buy more tix to increase your odds at winning a $1000 city lot deed - why would anybody spend their hard earned gold on anything else until all of the land is gone sometime in 2025?

2. The gold re-balance in r33 has tightened everything up to the point where folks just don't have any cash to burn on, oh you know, skill development anymore. They've got rent to pay, regs to procure, and probably raffle tickets to buy.

Both of these economic factors are self-inflicted. The first is the worst offender in my book (I've made my case against the raffle (for economic reasons) in other threads, so I won't bore you and do it again here). However, if the player-run economy continues to stall out, there's going to be big trouble down the road. If the game mechanic business opportunities continue to decline, we're all going to end up being gold-farmers selling cash on the secondary market to feed people's raffle ticket addiction. No bueno.

Thoughts, community? How can we drive small businesses under the weight of these self-inflicted design decisions? I can't lower my prices any further, or I'll be homeless soon.

Edit: I just noticed @DarkStarr 's post about loosening up NPC buying prices. That's a good start, however, that'll just mean more cash for lotto tickets in the end...or so I fear.

 

For the first raffle, they might be aiming for pulling gold out of circulation and let people go fresh with the current trend of gold farming routine.

However, on the 2nd raffle. Given that potentially 40k people will receive on ticket raffle. People will be less likely to farm gold just buy more than one or two ticket just to try their luck. I mean if they buy 1000 PAD tickets, which cost 10,000,000 GP for a chance of winning 1000 out of 40,000 (2.5%) isn't worth the hassle. Might as well buy a bunch of lot deeds from other players instead.

 

It's to be expected early in with the raffle. Everyone wants to participate but not everyone is high level enough to have that type of income.
Also the flush of COTO also made sure a lot of gold go to that trade.

 

I would venture that many people who are disappointed in recent changes are not looking at the same picture I am. The mass leveling use of taming and the making of large sums of gold had to be slowed down. Lord British and the devs probably recognize that the game needs to be a marathon, not a sprint.

If people get to 100 and amass a large stockpile of gold,what will motivate them to continue playing? Boredom will set in and people will trickle away. Yes, they will add new chapters,but the entire player base needs to realize they are trying to maintain a realistic balance, in my opinion.

 

Low population as well.
Still fairly indestructible gear.
Everyone can do everything.

 

I feel your pain. I have a central Brit vendor with every mining resource available with multiple quantity options ranging from 10-1000. Move a few 10 piles that's bout it. It's not the pricing much cheaper and I may as well use it myself to train. I'm pretty sure it's the raffle sucking up most of the gold. The rest goes to repairs, regs, arrows and or taxes. Just no money left to support other players. I know I don't have any! Everyone seems to be doing everything themselves...

 

I'm not sure what you were expecting. There are no barriers to crafting. There are no barriers to gathering.

If gathering required you to spend all day working a farm, less people would do it and it would be rare.

You don't really have rare recs, crafting cooldowns, things that require a high level or crafting, or other time sinks which may require a large commitment.

 

-buy obsidian Potions
-strategically grind/mine high value ores as efficiently as possible
-sell it all at market price... sell everything
-buy as many raffle tickets as possible
-win deeds
-sell deeds for gold
-during next raffle, buy more tickets, win more deeds, sell for even more gold!

there's a special kind of beauty to be found in perfect storms.

 

Wow, DA, You've gotten this down to a science. My concern is exactly what you've laid out, however. We're going to have an economy based on mining (only thing currently profitable) and raffle tickets! Speaking for myself, I've spent the last week in Serpent's Spine Mine farming nickel and tungsten for vendor resell, but dammit, Jim, I'm a farmer not a miner!

 

I agree and I'm all about slowing down the gameplay - not trying to be uber-rich in a week (or weeks), but I am trying to find a sustainable 'career' in game that will cover my taxes, keep my regs full, and allow me to enjoy other aspects of the game (other than sitting in a deep, dark mine for hours on end).

 

With the bajillions of mats required to make, success and get a good roll for MC/enchantments, I think plenty of folks will be solely adventurers and drop some K on a nice piece of gear here & there


Not many crafters are going to drop large coin on mats with the state of fuel costs and breakage / crap +rolls

 

The problem I see we have is the huge profit margins everybody is trying to make in this game. Everything listed is so out of whack. Using your cotton as an example here, you are marking it up 100%, and claiming this is practically giving it away. Being a tailor myself, I know cotton costs 5g to produce myself. That is counting the water/seed and tool replacement. So while we are used to just marking everything up whatever we feel like, I have been very successful not marking up the 100 - 200% everyone seems to think they need to survive.

 

I get your point, and I guess I was expecting others to play the game using mechanics that were designed to promote the player-run economy. It sure is a lot easier to buy 100 bushels of cotton from a guy like me (who is operating a farm) than it is to go out into the wild and forage your own. If folks are not finding my service valuable, then yes, there is a fundamental problem with core gameplay mechanics.

 

That's the concern with a gold farming economy. There's no reason not to wear junk gear, stick to spells which don't require reagents, etc. It takes something like PvP for people to want +7 gear for some small advantage. And that drives tons of low level mats and crafting through the system.

If land comes from a guild owning a castle, that guild will do everything possible to load up on expensive, brittle, ++ gear for the chance to win. But the current farming system rewards grabbing the most gold / hour with the cheapest gear.

 

I think base materials (cotton, ore, wood, plants, etc.) should be "easy" to procure. However, with skills, obviously the more you invest the better your "returns".

It's the refinement and crafting that should be more "difficult" to do. This is where Portalarium should put some barriers, making it a choice for a player to pick up one crafting skill and making it that much harder to get a second, etc. This way uniqueness can win out (particularly if they are planning specializations, as I have heard/read from the past).

 

For the raffle, I'm mostly a spectator... I'd earned enough gold to purchase one 10k ticket and left it at that. I'm just making my way through the different professions currently, trying my hand at everything and will hopefully find my little corner of world along the way. My little list was more than just tongue in cheek though - I've been asking folks for pointers on becoming a more efficient/successful gold earner and common themes that jumped out all had to do with targeted harvesting and obsidian potions.

Ore is the current economic winner to be sure - which is good in a way. To me it means balance is coming slowly but surely. Next update the market may favor pine wood. Anyone's guess is as good as mine... but the raffles, that'll be happening for the foreseeable future and will definitely be a factor in motivations for grinding in the minds of many players.

 

Prior to r33 I saw most people selling 100 cottons in the $1500 - 2000 range. I took the lowest price I'd seen (roughly $1500) and knocked an additional 33% off to offer a deal and still keep some sort of margin. Now if the new market is lower than that, I will, of course, adjust. My current pricing model is thus:

Seed 16gp + 3 waterings at 12gp for planting (and maximize yield) =28 gp for a X5 cottom bush. 28gp/5(yield) = hard cost of 5.6 gp per cotton (you're right about he hard cost). However, there is the indirect cost of labor that must also be factored (my time watering/planting 300+ bushes) of cotton, buying 30+ large planters, etc, as an initial investment, and land tax for the farm space. I think a 5gp markup is quite reasonable. I'm not looking to sell goods at hard cost - what would be the point? A mark up of some kind is required to cover the true cost of the product. I do not think a 5gp mark up per cotton is outlandish considering the work.

I am, after all, providing a service for folks who do not want to forage their way to the 1000's of cottons required to become a master tailor. There's a value in convenience.

But hey, if the market dictates other wise I will adjust. But there's very little wiggle room with the cost of mats & the indirect cost of labor to play with...

 

Maybe I'm doing it wrong. I've made and spent 100s of thousands of gold since persistence started. All to player vendors and not one on a lottery ticket (few days before the drawing sure, why be out of that gold now?).

I have only bought about 1k worth of crafting supplies though.

 

i have been making sales, just not at 500% margin like everyone else, i am a tailor and wouldn't even consider paying 1000g for a hundred cotton.

 

where is your vendor? i think 10g per cotton is a good and reasonable price.

the problem i got is, i need the producer xp, and so far only gathering really nets you this. id buy some stacks, if training tailoring from lvl (not proficiency) 77 to 86 wouldnt have cost me 130k of 280k pooled xp. thats 260 5-skull nodes i have to gather. so basically i need to gather anyway and therefore got enough cotton myself atm.

im not really what you would consider a crafter though... im not into selling my crafteds... i want to make shiny armor for my own and friends... and put a lot of time into this. not seeing myself running a vendor though, because i aint got no house anyway and the 10% cut on public is to harsh for my taste.

so yeah theres another reason people aint buying resources... they need the xp.