Current Lottery transactions for R54

Update June 28th:
2101 POT
1276 Anywhere


Update on June 27:
694 Anywhere
1054 POT


Update on June 26:
As of the morning of june 26th:
535 Anywhere
861 POT

Original post follows


Current Lottery transactions for R54

503 transactions for LotteryTicket_LotDeed_Anywhere_R54
758 transactions for LotteryTicket_LotDeed_POT_R54


Its been bugged for a while near as I can tell cause every transaction is Quantity 1 so no way to know ticket counts. Those numbers seem way low but who knows maybe everyone will purchase on Wednesday.

 

A lot of people like myself probably buy them on the last day.

 

Trying to make IGG for my last minute purchase!

 

lol ok, wish ive not seen that counts....thinking had could spend my hard earned gold into trash also....

 

It's a lot less compare to the last round. With R55 people will be able to obtain row lot for free after completing the storylines might play some factor here.

 

possible, but dont see a chance to win anyway ...ok a...under 0,2% chance hahaha

 

Not sure I think the chances of winning are as terrible as you think. They give away 50 POT deeds and that starts adding up fast. If you ignore the idea that people buying lots of tickets can only win once you general chances of winning a POT if they sell 1000 tickets and you bought:
1 - 4.8% chance to win
2 - 9.5% chance to win
5 - 22.1% chance to win
10 - 39.4% chance to win
20 - 63.5% chance to win
50 - 92.3% chance to win

My math might suck but it seems that your chance to win is this:
1 - (change not to win 50 times in a row)

chance not to win is 50 times in row is:
(#bought/total)^50

chance to win = 1 - (#bought/total) ^50


Also, the assumption I made about ignoring people that buy lots of tickets is totally wrong and works in your favor to at least win a row lot(assuming they draw best to least).

 

@xadoor

I've used this reddit post on the Runescape reddit to help me,

https://www.reddit.com/r/runescape/comments/2f7wiy/want_to_calculate_your_odds_of_winning_a_raffle/

"
Want to calculate your odds of winning a raffle item this month? Here's the formula!

Here's the math to help you find the probability of getting a prize.

• x = number of tickets you're putting in
  
  
• n = number of prizes being given out
  
  
• t = total number of tickets entered in the raffle
  

Your odds are then 1 - (((t - x) / t) ^ n)

This formula is just an approximation because it assumes winning tickets are replaced for each drawing (good enough because there are so many tickets anyways). The exact formula would be 1 - ((t - x) C n) / (t C n) where C is the combination formula, though it's a bit more complicated to compute.

"

 

That's a lot of last minute tickets...I expected a rush but that's insane.

2101 POT
1276 Anywhere

@redfish, I think thats pretty much the same math I did.

 

23,265,000 out of the economy. Awesome Gold Sink

 

1) I thought it was 50 POT deeds and 25 Anywhere deeds. The release notes say 100 and 50 thou it goes down significantly next month.

2) So, I can't get over all the last minute transactions. Unless people are buying them 1 at at time for some reason that means over 1000 people were logged on to buy tickets last night(over 100o POT transactions). I didn't even think 1000 people even knew about the lottery.

 

I guess we know longer get to see who won(or perhaps they haven't had time to format a list yet). I guess that's a great way to avoid all the "how did XXXX win every lottery since dinosaurs walked the earth?" observations/comments.

 

Yeah, there was too much angst.

 

I would imagine that not everyone bought only 1 ticket

 

That is correct - I've been tearing through my usual work account-side as well as forums postings, and the public facing list hasn't gotten done yet.

 

Where can I find the list of winners for last week's raffle?

 

Not released, not yet anyway. Winners have gotten their deeds though.