Critical rate calculation

I've been working on a file to parse log files to track statistics and I'm still not sure that crit rates are correct. Based on what we had been told, crit rate is :

Intrinsic crit chance (weapon + skills + dex mod) × (1 + extrinsic crit chance (equipment)) × Facing modifier
​

Currently I have the following:

• Dex 80 = 8%
• Armor weak points 80 = 5%
• Air's embrace 80 (Air mastery 60) = 7.5%
• Longbow base rate = 5%
• Equipment factor ~ 6%

Ergo, intrinsic rate should be 25.5%, actual observed over 3 days with bow 17.5% - 20.2% @ 95% confidence.

Since intrinsic is already too high, something is off. Best guess is that Air's embrace isn't being factored in. With that out, it drops to 18%.

Assuming that air's embrace is extrinsic, that gives an extrinsic of 13.5%, for I ×E = 20.4%, which is still outside the range, before factoring in rear shot, and I love me some flanks.

Best guess I have is that Air's embrace isn't working at all, which seems in line was the stats I'm seeing from other archers I was in party with who weren't using Air's embrace.

Anyone else seeing this?

 

How did you get:

Supposedly it's is dex/400.

 

That's from Chris's original post of dex/1000 for ranged weapons. No way in hell it is dex/400, that’d be 20% +5% for the weapon, which is way outside the range before adding skills.

 

I agree with you but for last couple release he has been saying that is 400 and has been 400.

 

In that case it is dex/400 there is either a hidden "crit defense" stat that reduces crit chance (which happens to be near identical for all enemies) or the rest of the stats aren't applied. @Chris any insight? Ran 624 crits out of 3318 hits with the stats above and they are not in line with the published calculation.

 

Im not sure why Chris has been saying dex/400 recently, but that doesn't track with observed performance in game. I run with around 140 dex (would be 35% crit chance at dex/400) using a mace (6% crit) and 80 armor weak points(5% crit).
I crit about 15% - 16% of the time at best. I cant reconcile that with dex/400

I also should be getting +10% from airs embrace (Im specialized in air magic)
From what I can tell it has little to no impact on crits

 

Some data for you:

Trial 1
130 dex, mace (6% crit), 80 armor weak points (5% crit), air's embrace with lvl 80 air mastery (10% crit bonus)
2,273 auto attacks on practice dummy
343 of them were crits
15.09% crit rate

Trial 2
130 dex, mace (6% crit), 80 armor weak points (5% crit), air's embrace without air mastery (no 10% crit bonus)
2,275 auto attacks on practice dummy
290 of them were crits
12.75% crit rate

Trial 3
96 dex, mace (6% crit), 80 armor weak points (5% crit), didn't cast air's embrace (-34 dex and no 10% crit bonus)
2,274 auto attacks on practice dummy
258 of them were crits
11.35% crit rate

 

Attacking from behind no longer increases crit chance. (That was changed when they introduced the subterfuge skill "Backstab.")

Now attacking from behind increases the damage by the amount indicated by your "Backstab" skill INSTEAD of increasing the chance to get a crit hit.

 

Figured that might be the case, even then though, the predicted value is still outside of the observed range.

 

Statistically, only the first and third test have a different observed range, 1 and 2 have lots of overlap, as do 2 and 3.

 

True but a few notes:

Trial 1 95% confidence range is 13.62% to 16.56%
Trial 2 95% confidence range is 11.38% to 14.12%
Trial 3 95% confidence range is 10.05% to 12.65%

So now lets see how this matches up with various ways to calculate the values.
I'm going to assume airs embrace 10% from specialization is extrinsic (Intrinsic is just WAAAYYYY out of the ball park)

UPSHOT if you want to skip the math.
My best guess is maybe...

• Every 40 points of dex = 1% crit chance
• The combat formula is is still effectively taking the crit chance (cc) and making it cc/(1+cc)

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Details if you want the math

Let's assume crit is calculated as you indicate in original post
Trial 1 5% armor weak points + 6% mace + 6.5% (130dex/20) = 17.5% * 1.1 (airs embrace 10%) = 19.25%
NOT IN 95% confidence range is 13.62% to 16.56%

Trial 2
5% armor weak points + 6% mace + 6.5% (130dex/20) = 17.5%
NOT IN 95% confidence range is 11.38% to 14.12%

Trial 3
5% armor weak points + 6% mace + 4.8% (96dex/20) = 15.8%
NOT IN 95% confidence range is 10.05% to 12.65%

Now lets take into account the way the combat formula calculates crit ends up making crit chance = cc/(1+cc)
Trial 1 5% armor weak points + 6% mace + 6.5% (130dex/20) = 17.5% * 1.1 (airs embrace 10%) = 19.25%
.1925/(1+.1925) = 16.14%
IS IN 95% confidence range is 13.62% to 16.56%

Trial 2
5% armor weak points + 6% mace + 6.5% (130dex/20) = 17.5%
.175/(1+.175) = 14.89%
NOT IN 95% confidence range is 11.38% to 14.12%

Trial 3
5% armor weak points + 6% mace + 4.8% (96dex/20) = 15.8%
.158/(1+.158) = 13.64%
NOT IN 95% confidence range is 10.05% to 12.65%

Hmmm Now lets go a step further and take Chris' comments about dex to mean every 40 dex is a crit percent (dex/4000)

Trial 1 5% armor weak points + 6% mace + 3.25% (130dex/40) = 14.25% * 1.1 (airs embrace 10%) = 15.675%
.15675/(1+.15675) = 13.55%
NOT IN 95% confidence range is 13.62% to 16.56%

Trial 2
5% armor weak points + 6% mace + 3.25% (130dex/40) = 14.25%
.1425/(1+.1425) = 12.47%
IS IN 95% confidence range is 11.38% to 14.12%

Trial 3
5% armor weak points + 6% mace + 2.4% (96dex/40) = 13.4%
.134/(1+.134) = 11.35%
IS IN 95% confidence range is 10.05% to 12.65%

My Best Guess

• Every 40 points of dex = 1% crit chance
  
• The combat formula is is still effectively taking the crit chance (cc) and making it cc/(1+cc)

 

I think backshot crit chance was removed in favor of a skill that increases all damage by a % and not crit chance