Enchanting failure rate

Has anyone noticed a huge increase in enchanting failure rate. I only tried 50 or so enchants and lost 43 of them. I lost four on the first enchant, 20ish on the second and the rest on the third.

bad session of enchanting...
burnt a bunch of resources for not a lot of benefit...

 

That's how statistics work.

The developers should put a small message on the crafting tables that explains how statistics work so that players learn that you can have multiple failures in a row even if you have a high percentage chance of success...and that's perfectly normal.

 

I understand statistics... I had a bit of math in my time. Completely understand perception and small sample sizes. My post was because the failure rate was double the statistic average. It was significant enough that I thought I would ask others to share their experiences.

 

My failure rate is exponentially above what it should be, and has been, since the game began. I have more 95% chances fail than I get 45% chances succeed. That cannot be over time.

 

We just remember the failures more saliently than the successes. See for some numbers : https://www.shroudoftheavatar.com/forum/index.php?threads/here-are-some-masterworking-numbers.81109/

 

Over incredibly large sample sizes (ie thousands of attempts) - these things do more or less even out.
I think overall the percentages are reflecting reality, but its really frustrating when you break 9 out of 10 things all of which had a pretty reasonable risk rate.
Just means someone else is having a good day...

What I have noted is that across all skills there seems to be a sequential failure issue which seems to crop up more often than it would if things were truly random.

What I mean is the tendency to - when crafting, harvesting, etc. - fail a 95% success or higher 3 or 4 times in a row.
Its almost like there is a delay, like a global 'roll' that changes every 10 seconds or so and if you repeat the action a few times before it 'rolls' again you will repeatedly fail.
I know this is very likely NOT how it works, as these 'fail chains' tend to be player specific, but this tends to come up a lot, both in personal experience and listening to other people exlaim "Just failed 98% four times in a row" at least a couple times a day.

But overall, the %s I would say are more or less accurate. As in, I'm breaking things as often as the displayed % says I should.
However I still feel they are way too punitive particularly at the GM level. Between the chance to break and the even more likely chance to get complete rubbish enchants, its easy to blow 100k gold worth of materials and have absolutely nothing to show for it. I'd like to see that 95% on the first go scale up to 100%, grandmasters shouldn't screw up basic stuff, and the rest to scale up better as well. Then if you don't get the enchants you want, at least you've got something someone else might want. Alternatively, get rid of all the crappy enchants out of the selection pool or increase the number of choices. Crafting is far far too much of a resource sink when it takes hundreds of wood/cloth/ore/beetle/etc. just to make a single item, we need more control over the outcome.

 

This. Definitely. GM should never fail a basic first enchant or MW. Also unlocking a 4th option at GM would be a really great reward too.