I was big into Ultima Online. I was mostly into the housing aspect than the actual game play. I still have an ultima online account paid in full since the first month of release. I would always have the best placed homes. Just having any home wasn't appealing. I guess that's my big question with Shroud of the Avator--about the better house placements. I see there's a lot of towns where people can put up housing. Just having a house in a remote spot is cool but not ideal. I guess I would want to try to get a house in a more populated place like I would guess most people would want. Do I essentially need a Alpha Pledge level to put up a house in a better location where people *might* be visiting more often? There's a lot of guess work it seems.
Given planned expansions, game dynamics, the player driven economy (ideals), and chance... I would say... maybe. ;-)
No. But your odds improve drastically if you do. That's the simplest answer I can give you. You're correct, there's a lot of guess work involved. There are a lot of people trying to predict a number of things, and not everyone can be right about all of it. So good luck to you trying to be more right than wrong.
Lot selection in the game will happen starting July 28 according to a strict hierarchy. You can see the details here: https://www.shroudoftheavatar.com/forum/index.php?threads/final-wipe-and-lot-selection.44430/ If you are not one of the top backers, you will not end up with one of the "best placed homes" in a main NPC town because they will be all taken by the time you get to choose.