Gathering/ Harvesting failures - why?

Hi Steevo!

Yeah that does seem true, that skill level does not seem to matter. Even though i havent experienced failing at harvesting farmed crops, i’ve experienced failing at gathering wild cotton bushes. The success will be really high like 95% chance when gathering cotton, but once i remember failing 3 times in a row!

There is something really wrong with whatever algorithm/formula is being used to simulate chance in this game.

I think they need to take a closer look at it and fix it.

 

Yea, it's the wild harvests I'm referring too. It's interesting farmed crop harvests don't fail.

I've heard this said a few times: high success chance of 95%+ but lots more fails than you would expect at that ratio and occasionally, a fail triggers a mini run of fails, usually three in my experience.

It would be really easy for the Devs to put all this to rest with a simple statement, either it's all in my imagination and it's a simple RNG based on the stated success percentages, or else it's been tweaked to fail more frequently due to other factors or stats or some programmed modification of base failure rates. @Chris?

 

The human brain can't into conditional probability. If you succeed you don't try again, which messes up the odds. It's like the Monty Hall paradox.

 

Something a few of us have noticed happening for a while now...

Even with high gathering skills (with 90%+ chance of success) when you do fail, it will happen 2 or 3 times in a row... then you will get a "critical" (near instant) harvest of the node you just failed on repeatedly.

It happens almost every time that way! Rarely will I fail once on a node and then success the next time. It's always a string of 2-3 failures and then a critical.

Anyone else see this too?

 

Yeah, that odd loop of 2-3 failures are odd, but it isn’t consistent though.