Hoping for a fix uppon R52 to Crafting Error w/ 3rd Ench/Mtwk

Hey folks,

I'm very excited like most of you about the "Official Release" on R52. I do hope though that the Dev team has figured out how to fix the terrible bug of the "3rd Ench/Mtwk".

For those of you who DO NOT know, your 3rd try to enchant or masterwork any single item is misrepresented grossly, resulting in a huge loss of materials and time. What it currently does is it takes the "4th" chance percentage and uses that to determine success Vs. your 3rd. In most cases your 3rd success chance will be anywhere from 43% to 49%, but please don't be fooled it's actually 16% - 19% (which is your 4th tier percentile). This is why when you try to go for that 3rd shot it almost always FAILS, even though it says 45% or so ...

Please have this fixed, it would be a huge disappointment to have a Bug like this plaguing the crafting system upon game release.


Regards,

Fzol
The House of Mangar

 

This would be nice to see as a part of that 80% content in the last 20% Lord British continues to reinforce in the telethons.

 

I'm astonished as to how it's been allowed to go on for so long, would really like to see the actual masterwork/enchanting percentages reflect the proper values.

 

I cannot think of a better, more important fix. I have had the same issue, viz., failing 3/3 items at rates no rng could possible muster. The results would make a Vegas casino boss hire Port's RNG for their games! They would never lose! Surely this is a math error in the code, because everyone I know who crafts has the same issue on 3/3 items.

 

Just need to post so everyone doesn't believe this is broken.

Masterworked and enchanted a ton more swords, shields, and armor Friday and Saturday. Third masterwork/enchant worked fine for me... as it always has (even for a four masterwork sword).

I have good and bad runs but when I triple masterwork 30ish exceptional bronze swords (I've done this MANY times) I always get closer to .95x.86x.48 = 39% or 12 swords than the 4 I'd get if the fourth masterwork 15% we're being used instead of the proper third masterwork 48%.

 

I do ALOT of 3rd Tries & its always the same story, BOOM a bunch of times before I get it to go though. BTW, not sure WHY Sara ur using the math you are. The chances of success/failure should be independent of each other, so 48% on the 3rd attempt should = half and half basically. IT NEVER EVER does ..

 

3rd Masterwork/Enchant is broken displaying an incorrect %.

 

I'd love to see some actual test cases if anyone has any from previous threads. I find it unlikely that the 3rd masterwork is using the 4th's % based on my own experience. Sounds like some gambler's fallacy is happening.

 

I am confused by your post. You stated that you do not believe this is broken and then provide evidence to the contrary. So, do you agree that the 3rd success chance is not represented accurately??? Because​

39% is not equal to 48%. Please elaborate how this is not broken if you should be achieving 48% success and are only achieving 39% success. Thanks.

 

Additionally, the minimum test base should be 100, but 300 would provide a more accurate mean. 30 is hardly enough to determine validity of a any test case base on percentage. Also, you should include all items crafted not just exceptional.

 

I don't think of it in terms of each individual attempt but instead how many I start with and how many I end up with at the end.

At 95% x 86% x 48% = I should break 61% and have 39% successfully triple masterworked when all is said and done which is around what I get.

If the formula was using 15% instead of 48% I'd instead only be getting 95% x 86% x 15% for 88% breakage and 12% successfully triple masterworked which would be EXTREMELY noticeable.

 

I believe Fzol has been crafting full time and with extremely high success rate for a long time and is a credible source. Also a developer, List Rostov, admitted to me that it was a known issue while we were conversing at one of the EVL Tourneys a while back. I don't think the devs would like you implying that they are liars. I see what you are saying about it not being the fourth attempt percentage but again your test base is not adequate to verify your claim. Also, following your method it would still be 9% short of the displayed value and is clearly a misrepresentation.

 

Agreed however I've always made swords in batches of 100, know about how many should be exceptional (27 currently), and how many exceptionals should survive all three masterworks... I have a LOT of triple-masterworked swords because I always end up around 8-15 out of the 30ish surviving the process and not 4 out of 30ish.

It's painful thinking of each individual attempt because you watch the failures add up... I always go in knowing I'll break 60% after all three attempts are said and done and usually do.

I'll do 100 swords tonight and track the third masterworks independently tonight and post results. I have a chest full on non-exceptionals, lots of silver, and so long as I get the durability masterwork even non-exceptionals end up being great swords with decent durability.

 

yea gotta test on 100 items that already have 2 masterworks to see the bug mentionsed

 

Will do.

 

Data:

• 194 out of 200 bronze longswords survived the first masterwork. This equals 97% which is 2% more than my expected 95%. A good start.

• 168 out of the remaining 194 bronze longswords survived the second masterwork. This equals 86.5% which is 1.5% more than my expected 85%. At this point I should have .95 x .85 x 200 = 162 swords left but actually have 168 left... woohoo!

• 80 out of the remaining 168 bronze longswords survived the third masterwork. This equals 47.6% which is 0.4% less than my expected 48%. At this point I should have finished with .95 x .85 x .48 = 78 swords but actually ended up with 80! That's 2 more than I expected to survive! If the game was using the fourth masterwork's 15% instead of the third masterwork's 48%, I would have only gotten 25 out of 168 swords surviving instead of the 80 I actually had survive.

Well if it was a problem, it hasn't been a problem since persistence because I've been crafting consistently since then and never witnessed it.

Obviously so am I.

Hopefully we can all finally put this boogeyman to bed once and for all and new players can stop being scared into not masterworking/enchanting because of claims on the forums that this part of the game is broken and that the devs are release after release ignoring fixing it.

“Most of the world will make decisions by either guessing or using their gut. They will be either lucky or wrong.”- Suhail Doshi
“It is a capital mistake to theorize before one has data.”- Arthur Conan Doyle
“When human judgment and big data intersect there are some funny things that happen.”- Nate Silver

Here is a link to my chat log during the time I was masterworking these 200 swords for any conspiracy theorists who want to double-check my numbers: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11x7D0WbyWbKRutdJGUO0MF9bRWTnv0o-jtc36GJsmFE/edit?usp=sharing

 

It doesn't matter how many times you show that it's working correctly, there are those who simply will not believe and will continue to complain.

 

So I said this last time, but feel I have to point this out again.
This is NOT a generic issue, so if you notice it you need to be very specific in your bug report.

IF you do not provide such specific parameters, then expect the devs to try with whatever they have at hand - then fail to reproduce it and list it as un-reproducible/working as intended and close the investigation, again.

Please include all the necessary repro steps. In this case:

• Which item was trying to be masterworked/enchanted?
• Which one is it, masterwork or enchanted.
• Which station was used? (Basic, Expert bundle, Expert benefactor, Expert founder)
• Which tool was used (Basic, prosperity, artisan, artisan founder, enhanced etc)
• What other buffs was in effect, devotionals? rings?
• How many items did you start with & how many did you end up with after 3rd attempt?
• What was the stated % in the UI and what was the actual outcome?
• Which was the build number?
• Do you have any logs or vid of the behavior?

This since like I said before, this is not consistent, nor easily reproduced across the board - as can be seen by other successful crafters not noticing this like @Sara Dreygon above, or others before.
If it had been that straightforward as a generic issue of misplacing 3rd with 4th tier then the first two dev investigations should have been able to find something.

So IF/WHEN you have such an issue then the parameters must be specifically replicated, in the current release.

My suspicion would rather be related to some specific factor that you use that most don't, like an artifact or something. Which then would explain your experience differing from the devs and other users.