Let Us Commiserate Together, Friends

Discussion in 'General Discussion' started by Thexedor Markhamm, Sep 8, 2016.

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  1. Thexedor Markhamm

    Thexedor Markhamm Avatar

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    ...on Enchanting & Masterwork Failure Horror Stories.

    I just had my first.

    Blew up my +5 Caparacian Necro Armor (dyed pure black, no less) with a 90% success chance.

    Now, if you need me I'll be standing on the overland map wearing nothing but rainbow fairy wings, playing a very sad tune on my lute (over and over again).

    What say you, Avatars? Lost some precious item on the tables? Care to share? You'll feel better (ok, not really - but I will..and, that's what counts.) ;)
     
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  2. Stryker Sparhawk

    Stryker Sparhawk Bug Hunter

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    Sorrow is not a desired state as perceived by our Oracle overlords.

    Please accept this rainstorm as reflection to find its silver lining. Miners are standing by.
     
  3. Ordovicia

    Ordovicia Avatar

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    Tip of the day: Never trust the percentages in this game.
     
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  4. Thexedor Markhamm

    Thexedor Markhamm Avatar

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    I need it to rain beetle carapaces to find that silver lining. :)
     
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  5. Sarg

    Sarg Avatar

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    My favorite is having that exceptional white iron item hitting on that second masterwork at 70% only to have it blow up in the 95% first enchant.
     
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  6. Bow Vale

    Bow Vale Avatar

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    Ive lost 2 socketed bows with supple leather on the first masterwork at 90% odd percent in a row, and then lost another socketed one on the enchanting table at 93%. I actually haven't got a exceptional bow in the last fifteen attempts. I am at the moment, storing enough resources to make 15 bows in one go, I (should) get about 4 exceptional from and then i will socket/enchant/masterwork all at once....... I should get one useable out of that....shouldn't i? /cries
     
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  7. Barugon

    Barugon Avatar

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    I was finally able to craft an exceptional pine longbow with supple leather bowstrings. Once I get my alchemy high enough then I'll implant some thaumaturgy gems, destroy it in the first enchant attempt and cry.
     
  8. Lord Baldrith

    Lord Baldrith Avatar

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    I sympathize. I am still crying about my critted Caparacian epic cloth helm that was destroyed doing my first masterwork which was 88% chance at the time. I was only planning to do 1 because I so rarely crit anything in this game I was beyond thrilled that it happened on Carparacian bolts instead of my standard cotton bolts that I normally make.
     
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  9. Thexedor Markhamm

    Thexedor Markhamm Avatar

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    One would think...I just blew up a supple leather leather leggings (mastworked) on first enchant. There should be some *chance* to salvage a failure - if the odds are above 75%. IMO

    Just not my day at the tables, I guess.
     
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  10. lollie

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    They'll probably hear this and turn it into selling us Protection Charms in the addon store or through coto that prevent destruction of crafted items upon a fail.
     
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  11. Alley Oop

    Alley Oop Bug Hunter Bug Moderator

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    i have made @Oba Evesor SO MUCH ARMOR. he keeps busting it.
     
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  12. Kittik

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    Hahaha, I've never failed more often on something I'm supposed to have a 98% chance of success. It's ridiculous.
     
  13. BiggieD

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    Yes, we should be able to salvage a failure at around that percentage, but our item take a hit so we would have to repair it.
     
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  14. Nadomir

    Nadomir Avatar

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    Actually I don't mind exceptional items blowing up on failure when you try to enchant them... That's ok and makes the successfully enchanted items even more valueable. What really needs to be fixed is the caluculation of the success-chances... either the one actually used or the one displayed are completely off (and not only for enchantment).
     
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  15. kaeshiva

    kaeshiva Avatar

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    Yes, I know its random and it should even out over a large enough sample size, but failing three 95% success chance in a row on heavily masterworked/expensive gear is a bit ridiculous. I'm level 104 in enchanting - so a few levels beyond "grandmaster" - I really don't think it should be possible to fail the 'first go.' But if it has to be 95%, then it should actually be 95%. 1 in 20. The odds of this happening three times in succession are 0.0125%. I admit that that still leaves a chance, but its pretty slim. I think whatever formula etc. is being used needs to be checked. I know there's risk vs. reward, but we're talking one enchant here, not trying to get stuff to +12. Considering the cost of crafting, the time spent to acquire enchanting materials, and the cash sink for buying mandrake (yes, its cheap, but I go through thousands of it), I think it should be considerably more reliable.
     
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  16. monkeysmack

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    Dang, Oba's got a personal armorer.

    Edit: Ironic thread is ironic. Just 5 minutes ago I blew up carapacian epic cloth gloves with 2 masterworks (exceptional) at + 6 when I tried to enchant it for the first time (96% chance). It's as if all the beetle carapaces suddenly cried out in pain and then were silent.
     
    Last edited: Sep 9, 2016
  17. Cambion

    Cambion Avatar

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    Well trust the percentage but understand that other factors may be impacting success. 1/10 is one in ten but after all the other potential fails the people who risk will get their rewards. (Eventually)

    I Feel for the Armor what did it ever do to deserve such a fate.
     
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  18. Alley Oop

    Alley Oop Bug Hunter Bug Moderator

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    we trade. i make him cloth chests to destroy, he makes me plate legs.
     
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  19. Lao Tzu

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    Hello, all

    You're right that there is a 1 in 8000 chance of failing three 95% chance successes in a row. But the chance that you'll eventually see three failures in a row is actually much higher, especially if you do a lot of crafting. For example, the chance that you will have three failures in a row out of 1000 attempts is actually 11.75%. So still a small chance, but nowhere near 0.0125%.

    It's human nature to NOT notice the other 7999 times that it doesn't happen. In fact, if nobody ever failed three times in a row, then it wouldn't be random.

    I'd like to share my gathered data from crafting, enchanting, and masterwork since reaching my current levels of level 93 Tailoring, level 96 Tailoring Masterwork, and level 98 Enchant.

    I have crafted 327 exceptional cloth armor items out of 1293, or 25.3%. Pretty close to the predicted 25% for Level 93 Tailoring.

    For first enchantments, I have succeeded 177 out of 185 times, or 95.7%. Also close to the predicted 95%.
    For second enchantments, I have 129 successes out of 150 attempts, or 86%. Actually a bit higher than the predicted 82%, but not significantly so.
    For third enchantments, I have 12 successes out of 52, or 23.1%, which is quite a bit lower than the predicted 44%/45%. This is over 3 standard deviations from the expected value of 23 successes out of 52, which is statistically significant but not necessary a sign of bias based on only 52 trials.

    For first masterworks, I have 54 successes out of 60 attempts, or 90%. A bit lower than the predicted 95%, but not significantly so.
    For second masterworks, I have 45 successes out of 55 attempts, or 81.8%. Also in line with the 80%/81% prediction.

    So with the exception of third enchantments, my data show remarkable consistency with the predicted success percentages. I'm sure Portalarium keeps even more extensive numbers and would make corrections if necessary. I hope this data gives people some faith in the RNG which people keep complaining about.

    - Lao Tzu
     
    Last edited: Sep 17, 2016
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  20. Josh Randall

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    Having never tried masterworking (but knowing the dangers and failures) do you get back anything at all?

    From what I know, you get nothing - and that doesn't seem right - it just goes *poof* into thin air.

    One would think at the very least, you should get back something - fabric scraps, possibility of a rare, something.

    Getting nothing back to me is a very poor design choice. So much time to collect, so much time to raise skill and then to have every minute completely wasted?

    Yeah, doesn't look like I'll be attempting any of that
     
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