Siege Tracking - Breaking them all down

This thread is a more in depth look at astronomical data and their relationship to the sieges conducted by the cabalists with the goal of figuring out exactly how to predict future sieges.

Supposedly we should be able to figure this out from the prophesies but as far as I'm aware they're not entirely in-game yet.

Our first set of data comes from Resolute, February, 508.

The idea behind this spreadsheet is that sieges are supposed to be predictable and governed by the New Britannia sky. Constellations are omitted as we know their role in the system (at least I'm pretty sure ) So we are looking at the relative locations of all planets in the system over the course of time. What is happening.. or not happening when sieges take place?



How to read the data..

The first thing you need to understand is that all percentages are rounded off. This was done so the data can be compressed or else this image would be even larger. However, it SHOULD be accurate enough for our purposes..

The data displays the relative location of all planets along their orbits, beginning at their zenith positions. So 0% for example is at zenith, 25% is a quarter way through their orbit which would be on the western horizon, 75% would be on the eastern horizon etc..

The planets are color coded according to virtue.

Each day is broken up into 8 segments according to how time is displayed in-game with the midnight position giving the day number. Sieges are marked here with the pink background and red text.

Next to the planet names in the upper left, the planet orbit durations are shown for reference.

I was originally going to do a more visual display but as you might imagine that would've taken a long time for even a week.. never mind 7 months per town.. when what we're showing here is only 1 month.

The following months will be given later in their entirety once I've finished inputting siege times. There's also one or two exceptions I need to figure out how to display. (ie sieges starting or ending in the middle of a segment).

 

Resolute, March 508​

For March, 508 I missed collecting about 9 hours of data.. so those days that are in March are greyed out.

March 10th is of particular interest. The siege is recorded as having stopped at Dawn.. but then starts back up again while still at Dawn. Thus the odd color coding done there. Unfortunately that cell couldn't be split in half without a great deal of work so I just coded the letters. Black for no siege.. red for siege. The day illustrates that screenshots at 5 minute intervals may still not give a completely accurate picture.

 

One thing I'm noticing in this data.. is what every time a siege begins at Dawn.. Avara is at 75% (on the eastern horizon). This is a consistent 3 day occurrence. The only other body that can match those conditions is the Sun.

Avara, being Orange or the anti-virtue of Sacrifice.. which is made partly of Valor/Red. If Avara is involved we can assume I think that Indigo/Purple is also involved somehow.

Of course, at this point I'm not ruling anything out (except for all of my theories to date which have been disproven by data )

 

General observation - There are 3 bodies whose schedules never change from year to year.

Daedelus - With a 7 'day' orbit it is always in the same place at the same time every week.
Avara - With a 3 'day' orbit
Indigo - With a 2 'day' orbit.

These three schedules are a constant regardless of the year and they always begin the year in alignment with each other.

Thus, any siege which is likewise consistent probably involves one or more of these 3 in some way.

 

You think of everything for us simple folk

No celestial secret is safe with Bowen on the case

 

You the man, Bowen.

You've got me captivated.

 

just looking at that table makes my head hurt... LOL

INFO OVERLOAD...

 

Just updated the 2nd post with March for Resolute..

Well *I* need that color coding to keep my eyes from glazing over.

Mine too!

What I need to do is get 3DS Max reinstalled and recalibrate my solar system simulation for the years in question and just add some indicator for the sieges. Could visually pack data for multiple cities into it and it'd be a lot easier to look at.

 

So we have a quote from Scottie here..

"Nefario represents Hatred, and by extension is the Cabalist leader of the cult of the moon Dastard, whose forces will attack towns that venerate Valor when that moon passes in front of the constellation of Valor..."

If this is true.. #1 The moons don't actually share the names of the cabalists.. though I admit that was an assumption on my part for lack of anything better.. but more importantly.. #2 The siege schedules are royally screwed. For "Dastard" should pass the constellation Valor regularly every 13 hours and should probably only last a limited duration based on this event. #3 Moons are named similarly to the dungeons.

 

Let's see if we're working from this..

Dolus: The Cabalist of Deceit who causes confusion in the ranks, whose symbol is the Two Faces of Deceit.
Temna: The Cabalist of Despite who turns allies against each other, whose symbol is the Torn Heart.
Nefario: The Cabalist of Dastard (Cowardice) who strikes terror into those who dare oppose him, whse symbol is the Raised Arms of Capitulation.
Nefas: The Cabalist of Injustice who causes enemies to beg for mercy, whose symbol is Imbalance.
Avara: The Cabalist of Punishment who inflicts huge amounts of damage that lingers for long amounts of time, whose symbol is the Flail.
Indigno: The Cabalist of Dishonor who generates large clouds of poisonous gas, whose symbol is the Poisoned Chalice.
Corpus: The Cabalist of Carnality who forces opponents to “disrobe”, therefore losing all their defensive protection, whose symbol is Intercourse.
Fastus: The Cabalist of Vanity who mesmerizes opponents, whose symbol is the Vortex of Self Absorption.

And the Red moon is 'Dastard'.. then it seems the moons are named..

Deciet
Despite
Dastard
Injustice
Punishment
Dishonor
Carnality
Vanity

Then there's this little tidbit..



Not that most of this has much to do with the sieges themselves but I want to at least get the names of the moons straight.

At this point I'm not going to do anything more until I've seen the actual telethon where this stuff is talked about. Besides, if indeed sieges are to occur when a moon passes the relevant constellation..(which would be MUCH simpler and straight forward) then the whole system is buggy and I'd just be wasting my time.

 

Here is his response from the other thread:

So... yeah, its broken right now.

 

Broken implies it was once right... still unfinished as of today might be more accurate.

 

I don't know whether to be happy or sad. I was almost looking forward to actually cracking some super secret hard code. But we are officially in an unfinished state and we have a pretty good idea what the finished state should look like.

So.. no more siege tracking for now..

 

Deep down, this is what I expected, but like you, I really wanted to see a code cracked.

 

Just an update.. since this thread was originally just about figuring out sieges. Certain revelations have recently brought to light that I was operating under one great false assumption that I was only beginning to break away from.. that only one planet per virtue mattered. Which was in part enforced by incorrect explanations.

Truth is.. the siege schedules have apparently been working fine this entire time. When ANY planet passes the constellation of a particular virtue, a town with that related devotional will come under siege. Doesn't matter which planet. When I tested this idea against Resolute's data.. it matched up almost perfectly. So there you have it.. the planet determines the cabalist laying siege.. the constellation matches with the devotional to determine location.

Now I'm kind of disappointed it was explained.. we would've figured it out eventually!