WTB HOB Cabinet

Yep, I know.... I'm far beyond econ 101. tyvm.

I have a number of rares myself. Statue heads being one of them. Obviously I'm trying to gauge market sentiment across the board.

 

Good point....

I got one of those but haven't heard much about it. I'll be totally honest about that game - I don't get it.

I love Tracy Hickman, I'm a huge DragonLance fan and I think Blade of the Avatar is brilliant. But when I hear Tracy explain his Sojourner Tales game all I can hear is that guy from Office Space talking about his "Jump to Conclusions mat". I haven't even claimed my physical copy I just wanted the rare for SOTA. If other people are into it, that's great and I wish them and Tracy the best of luck. I just don't really get the attraction. I hope it looks cool in-game.

 

I

Asked about this and they dont have an item picked out for it yet. Makes me think its pretty rare. I back a lot of stuff just for the SotA stuff but find out about some cool stuff that I wouldnt look into otherwise.

 

Same here. I backed underworld ascendant, that Everquest sequel that never was funded, sojourner tales - all for the SotA exclusives.

 

I haven't backed the Bard's Tale yet. I won't unless there's a SOTA connection. I'm really hoping there will be a Harp or something that we can get in SOTA if we back it.

 

I agree to these terms.

 

Actually, it is part of the Lord Marshall, Baron and Duke level pledges too. Forgot about that. ;-)

 

Yes, but I don't think that impacts this. The point is that you have to pay $550 or more to get a tax free village lot.

 

True, but it also grants a bunch of other rewards.

... which is why I'd like to get a price on all items.

 

If I tell you that the only way to buy Grand Theft Auto 18 is if you buy it as part of a package that comes with posters, a figure of the main character, and a digital soundtrack of the game that costs $500. And oh yeah, I'm only making a limited amount of them. Do you sell the game for less than $500?

The answer depends on what the demand is.

I think the demand for tax free housing will be rather large.

 

I added an edit to my post before you posted. Obviously we can spare the econ 101.

I don't think the other items are non-significant in the cost of pledge, but I grant that the deed should take the lion's share. The calculation is slightly muddied (which you should accept) when tax-free village deeds are also part of high level pledges too.

 

I'm simply making a case that once you can no longer get a tax free deed from the devs (at launch) then the price will rise until the market decides what value it has. I'm not trying to econ 101 you to death here, I'm just saying that I believe that price has yet to be set and that it WILL be higher than some fraction of what the pledge price was. I think it's reasonable to assume that it will be near or above the pledge price, at least early on after launch.

I'm suggesting this because I think housing will be GONE (poof), and finding a tax free deed will be a challenge once people settle into whether they wish to play the game or not.

I'm totally aware of what the devs said in the postmortem yesterday about housing availability. But I respectfully disagree with them. Unless they think no one is going to show up to play this game at launch, there's no way there will be tons of housing in this game. The devs are not going to make 100k available lots.

 

Fair enough.

I'd guess that the HOB will rise in value faster than the tax-free village deed since it is rarer.

Clearly, the Duke and LOTM deeds are even rarer although demand is likely to be less given the huge barrier to entry (thinking on percentage increase in price). It isn't entirely clear if village lots won't be available with some sort of pledge after launch. The devs said they will create new pledges, but I suspect they might keep tax-free deeds (despite anything they've 'promised' before).

Even more interesting is that benefactor pledges can be purchased at a discount to face value, meaning that a tax-free village lot can be purchased for less than $550. If HOB = tax-free village lot then it would be wise to buy a benefactor account now at a discount.

 

I would say that HOB Cabinet would certainly equal Village Tax Free Lot today (if we could make that trade - which we can't, today).

Who knows what will be a fair trade at launch. I could see scenarios where an HOB Cabinet would be worth more than that.

 

I peg the village deeds somewhere around $275-300. And the HOB cabinet, less than that. The cabinet has the potential of being more than a village deed but not right now. It could change rapidly depending on population at launch.

 

What do you estimate launch population to be?

I would say at a minimum we'll have 200k and at a maximum 1 million.

200 or so cabinets for 200k people? That's why I think the cabinets are so valuable. If you figure there will be far less than 200k players at launch, then yes I think your numbers make more sense (right now).

 

I tend to view all things at their current value. Anticipation is anticipation but I'm not willing to pay for that. If there are 3k people signing up every day I would pay for anticipation. That might happen in the future but its not right now.

 

Speculation has high risk and high reward.

 

True. It all comes back to how many people do you think are going to play. Dont wanna pay for an item priced at 200k player base when we are at 50.

This is typical in the real estate market, people say the market is sure to go up, I want X amount for my house but it doesnt sell because they are pricing in future value that hasn't become a reality yet. And lots of people lose money speculating. I prefer Texas Hold 'em over speculation. Have a better shot at those odds.

Not trying to kill your thread.... Nobody really knows the true value of the cabinet until one sells. I think we were close to a true current value in our PM's in May.

 

Well it's not my thread, I didn't start it.

It doesn't bother me to hold onto my cabinets until launch. The economics are very strong and in my favor. The biggest risk for me is that the devs create some kind of alternative HOB cabinet thus ruining the exclusivity of what I own. I don't think that will happen with this particular item because of its history, but who knows.

Either way the value is going to be significant unless no one plays this game and I'm confident that will not be an issue at launch.