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Dump the crafting RNG system, its awful.

Discussion in 'Release 30 Feedback Forum' started by Oba Evesor, May 31, 2016.

  1. Oba Evesor

    Oba Evesor Avatar

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    92% chance to enchant an item on the Alch table...failed 3 our of 5.
    90% to masterwork an item, fail 2 out of 2 times. Blacksmithing.
    84% to masterwork an item fail twice again. Tailoring, 20 Beetle Carapace, just poof.
    These are all first try attempts.

    I never, ever want to hear how the Adventuring system is a grind.
    This is the epitome of grind, go out find double all the mats you need and fail. Losing everything. Go out and find all ya need again and go back to the stations to destroy your mats...again.
     
  2. Poor game design

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    Unless their random number generator is broken, that sounds exactly like normal everyday statistics to me.
     
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  3. agra

    agra Avatar

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    And this, among other reasons, is why people will either just make their own (rarely) or buy NPC gear, or simply do without the bonuses of crafting. The number of times I've failed at 98% harvesting attempts isn't explained away by glib "oh wells". I've seen systems like this in the past, and the player base suffers with them being broken for weeks, months, or years, then finally someone reviews the code and fixes it, and lo! and behold! it was broken the entire time. :|

    Too much stick, not enough carrot in the current crafting system, especially given the durability loss rates. Crafting recipe input and output quantities are inappropriate given the new reality of durability loss.

    The enchanting system is the most punitive I've seen in the past 5 years. Maybe even longer, but EQ1 crafting might have been worse in general.
     
  4. Lazlo

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    @Oba Evesor I'm not sure exactly what you're saying in the OP. Do you mean that you don't think crafting should use a RNG because it sucks if you are unlucky, or do you mean that you think the current RNG is broken?

    As long as there are no other modifiers beyond what is displayed as the chance of success, it's fairly simple to test if it's working properly, although you obviously need a much larger sample than this. I have noticed that it seems like I fail a lot more than I should while gathering, but I've never actually recorded any results and it's very easy to be wrong without actually testing.

    edit: I don't mind testing it sometime if it hasn't already been done.
     
    Last edited: Jun 1, 2016
  5. NRaas

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    Well, yeah... I find the failure conditions for masterwork to be overly punitive as well.

    The devs could have gone with a different approach : Perhaps a failure applies the durability loss, but not the benefits. That way you could try again at a bit of a loss.

    Perhaps relegate the complete loss of equipment to an "Critical Failure" condition, which happens far less often.


    Random numbers suck... They are too unpredictable, obviously. :p
     
  6. FrostII

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    They have yet to get any %chance to match anything, so nothing new there....
    What level are you in the relevant skills ?
     
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  7. Bluefire

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    The punitive aspects of the game are overwhelming, currently. Hopefully this will be reasoned and adjusted soon.
     
  8. Leelu

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    By the time you make Gm, you should already know your trade. By the time you attain Master Craft, you definitely should not be bound by chance, but by skill. How many times have you crafted this weapon or that helm . That should be the deciding factor not chance. A master craftier worth their salt will know what breaks and what doesn't .
     
  9. Oba Evesor

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    Totally agree!! :D Its getting a bit frustrating to see a % chance that means absolutely nothing. Its a coin flip on each upgrade.

    Smithing is 95, w/masterwork at 50-ish. Alchemy is GM w/a level 62 enchanting skill. Tailoring is in the 90's, masterwork for that one is only 20-ish.
    Have to log in to get exact numbers on all three, but those are close.
     
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  10. Oba Evesor

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    This.
    The numbers don't feel right. Those attempts I mention were just from last night. I have done a lot of gear. Failure rate on cloth seems much higher, even on the Alch table when doing cloth vs. metal.
    Its just too random. Give us actual numbers, or give us an in-game mechanic to bring our rate up. Some sort of rare that works similar to the Obsidian coins, but when on a table for upgrades it makes it a 100% chance.
    Heck sell em in the store, couch it as 'avoiding the crafting grind' for players that don't have the time to grind, much like the XP pots proposed. I mean its just a time saver right?

    I'm not being serious about that last part,just throwing yet another dig at the Obsidian Crown scheme and how slippery that slope can get! ;)
     
  11. Roycestein Kaelstrom

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    Sounds like you had a bad RNG night.
     
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  12. Poor game design

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    I don't mind the "punitive" effects like that in crafting.

    If the random number generator is broken or there's a calculation error that's one thing. That should of course be fixed. @Chris @Bzus But if it's just a case of people not liking it when they still fail with a 98% change, well the only way to change that is to create a skill based system that requires hand movements and timing. After all the heat the devs took from the targeting system changes, I can't see everyone in the community being overly happy about that.
     
  13. Oba Evesor

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    Were it only a night I don't know that I would've posted this. ;)

    My success rate is nowhere near what it says on the tip. Went thru just over 600gold ingots, and maybe 400 silver ingots this weekend.

    I don't either, these numbers are either wrong or wholly RNG. Either way its not a 92% chance. I should have 9 of the ten pieces of gear that I try. I've tried way more than ten. Both on the crafting and Alch tables.
     
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  14. Poor game design

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    Well that's where you're 100% wrong. :)

    That's what I was trying to say in my first post. That's NOT the way statistical percentages work. If you have a 92% probability it doesn't mean that you will have 9 out of 10 anything. You could have ZERO out of 10. Why? Because every time you try to do something you have an 8% chance of failure, and that can happen infinitely. It probably won't, and it's not very likely, but a sample size of just 10 is very VERY low, and really doesn't tell you much about if something is "working" or not.

    By using your logic, if you flip a coin 10 times, 5 times it should be heads and 5 times it should be tails. Give it a try, see what happens. Then try flipping it 100 times and see what happens. You might be really surprised at the outcome.
     
  15. Oba Evesor

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    It should still average out to 90%. Or why is that number even there?
    That's why I said I've crafted way more than ten. 600 gold ingots is 120 tries on the Alch table. I have like 10 pieces of completed gear at the 90% level. Those numbers don't feel right.
     
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  16. Lazlo

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    Ok, I am curious too so I will do some testing and report back. Even though it takes a fairly large sample to determine exact success rates, it won't take too long to determine if actual success rates are significantly different than what they are supposed to be.
     
  17. himmelweiss

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    Out of 10 times it's quite possible to miss 0 - 4 times, yes even when your success chance is at 92%.

    So using the 92% as an example:
    If you quite often get 4 or 4+ fails in theese 10 times tests something may be indeed wrong.
    1 - 3 fails would be normal and nothing to worry about.

    Or just take an D100, roll it 100 times.
    You should have an total avg score at about 45-55~ with about 5 - 10~ fails.
     
    Last edited: Jun 1, 2016
  18. Net

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    We need really large sample to tast random numbers properly. I think the main weakness of SotA system that it is too random. I am pretty sure people will remember all the chained failures. Even at 90% chance the chance of failing 3 times in a row is 0.1%, it is quite likely several people will experience it. Actually everybody is likely to experience it several times if they do stuff over 10000 times. Some people will experience it on their first attempt. Of course, it sucks when it happens to you.
     
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  19. Daxxe Diggler

    Daxxe Diggler Bug Brigade - Bug Hunter

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    I have on several occasions failed at harvesting with 100% chance shown on the meter! If that isn't proof that something is not right, I don't know what else to tell you.

    Those times were always on easy nodes where the harvest times were very fast... so the next attempt (and success) at the failed node went so fast that it didn't seem worth mentioning. It wasn't really a major setback and I just chalked them up to lag or glitches and kept on going.

    I have also had times where I have like 84% success rate showing, and fail the harvest 6-7 times in a row! I suppose that mathematically that is possible because each attempt get's a separate random number roll and they are not linked to any previous rolls. But it still didn't feel right.

    With harvesting, it isn't such a big deal though because a failure doesn't make you lose anything (except some durability on your tool and a bit of time).

    With the masterwork crafting stuff though, it IS A BIG DEAL to lose what cost you hours of harvesting materials.

    Unless we have the ability to somehow earn (through skills) the ability to have 100% chance... this RNG system will be a problem for all but the lucky people.
     
  20. Noric

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    I feel like the extreme cases often feel too common in Shroud. Both positives(meticulous chains) and negatives(failure chains) seem significantly over represented.

    I'm all for a large sample size test... Do we have any indication of what people would accept as a large sample size?