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Dump the crafting RNG system, its awful.

Discussion in 'Release 30 Feedback Forum' started by Oba Evesor, May 31, 2016.

  1. agra

    agra Avatar

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    Depends on the reader.

    For combat stats, typically 100 events is considered bare minimum, and normally 1000 is better. Shroud's logs don't have all the necessary information, currently, though, for all tests.
    For crafting & harvesting events, it's complicated due to there not being any log entries that show what the percentage was, so you have to video everything, which isn't pleasant.
    There are fail/success entries for crafting, as long as you know the percentage, that might be ok. However, again, it comes down to the perception of the reader.

    Some readers will accept 10 samples as indicative, because the cost to perform those 10 attempts is ridiculous.
    Some readers will demand more than 100 samples, simply because they don't want to believe, and/or are staunch supporters of "whatever", regardless of the cost to the tester.
    I've seen in some games where you can submit logs for analysis, and they add them to a pool, all in an effort to get the dev team to admit there may be an issue, or even just to review the server side logs to see if there may be an entropy issue.

    So, with that segue.. "A lack of entropy can have a negative impact on performance and security." (in Shroud's context, security would mean " a good RNG " )

    Predictable, repeating, deterministic, 'stretches', 'runs', and similar RNG problems have plagued MMO's since MMO's have existed. One thing is for certain, the more players you have all using the same RNG pool, seed, or similar entropic source? The worse the problem becomes. There were times in EQ1 when PvE combat could be predicted depending on the time of day, because their original RNG seed was time based, and with thousands of concurrent players, became deterministic.

    If someone is in the 92-95% success range and is seeing more than 5 failures in a row... that's not good, regardless of the underlying RNG.
     
    Insinious FizzleThorpe and Lazlo like this.
  2. Lazlo

    Lazlo Avatar

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    It depends on exactly what you are testing. Some things will achieve significant results faster than others. You can calculate the confidence level of results for anything though. If the RNG is way out of whack, you will be able to achieve over a 99% confidence level of that pretty quickly.

    edit: google estimator of true probability if interested.
     
  3. Poor game design

    Poor game design Avatar

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    Right, they don't feel right. But that's because we're humans used to thinking about percentage chances in terms of 90% = really good and not, it's possible to still lose over and over again.

    If you flip a coin one time it has a 50% chance of being heads and a 50% chance of being tails. But flip the coin ten times and what happens? You might very well have 8 heads or 8 tails in a row. What?! That doesn't feel right at all. But what's happening is we are confusing the probability of something happening (50%) with the likelihood of something happening multiple times. The truth is, that chance of the coin being heads in a single flip is 50%, but the likelihood of it being heads over and over again is very common.

    @Chris So maybe the thing to do here (besides checking our math and random number generators) is to rethink how we deliver this message to the player. When a player see's 92% they surely do not expect to fail the next two times. So the 92% thing is not really giving them a proper indication of what their chances are. I know it IS, but it's not going to be perceived correctly. The transmitter is not sending good data to the receiver. ;)

    So is there a way to minimize the SHOCK of failure by communicating the message that it's not uncommon to fail again? Maybe there should be a message like "92% is high, although uncommon, it's still not statistically impossible to see additional failures." Thoughts?
     
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  4. Noric

    Noric Avatar

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    @agra @Lazlo

    I agree that we can generate meaningful stats with relatively small sample sizes but skeptical individuals will entirely disregard these. On the other hand i have no intention of doing video recording of hundreds of crafting attempts.

    Is there no log information for critical success? I'd be willing to make 100 pairs of chain boots, but if people just won't trust me anyway, I'm not sure there is a point.
     
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  5. Lazlo

    Lazlo Avatar

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    No idea about the logging, but personally I don't really care if anyone is skeptical. Everyone has access to the same RNG, so anyone can test it themselves to verify.

    I'm just going to make spools of thread. Cotton is cheap and easy to get in large quantities off vendors. I'll try to get my skill up to where I have close to a 50% success rate on spools, lock, and do a few hundred trials.
     
  6. Noric

    Noric Avatar

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    I specifically want get to get numbers related to exceptional crafting . The fact that boots are practicality a consumable at this point doesn't hurt.
     
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  7. Oba Evesor

    Oba Evesor Avatar

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    Totally agree. As long as it averages out though I don't mind. The enchanting/master-working doesn't seem to be averaging properly. I'm all for contributing to a larger sample size! Just give a holla!

    This is my experience so far.
    On the smelting table I have a 95% chance on gold ingots. I fail one out of every 20 tries. That's a correct number.

    On the Alchemy Table I have a 92% chance to upgrade on the first try. 10 (I'll even bump this to 12 just out of generosity) out of 120 attempts isn't correct. Its 10%.

    I use the True Bronze tools on all the tables (unless I'm smelting 100's of ingots, then its Prosperity, just go thru too many rep kits otherwise).
     
  8. Lazlo

    Lazlo Avatar

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    It's going to take me a while to make all this thread. Apparently thread is not something that is made quickly. Up to about 70 trials so far.
     
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  9. Roycestein Kaelstrom

    Roycestein Kaelstrom Avatar

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    Since the devs are the one that define the seed of the RNG. Perhaps, they could testing that seed and run some simulation at maybe 100k - 1 mil samples to see if the numbers look like and see if there need to be some kinda offset bonus for higher skill level?
     
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  10. Oba Evesor

    Oba Evesor Avatar

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    Woot, good deal man. wish i was there to help ya! :D

    the true bronze tools increase your production time a bit more than the prosp tools. Its still slow going on upper tier mats like gold and bronze-type stuff.
     
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  11. agra

    agra Avatar

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    This is what you can find in the log..

    Code:
    [5/15/2016 9:58:43 PM] Crafting Trainer: (to you) Welcome to the crafting pavilion! Talk to me if you have any questions about how to get started, or about specific crafting skills.
    [5/15/2016 9:58:55 PM] Item (Iron Scimitar) was destroyed during crafting.
    [5/15/2016 9:58:55 PM] Item (Smithing Hammer) took 2 damage to secondary durability.
    [5/15/2016 9:58:55 PM] Item (Smithing Hammer) took 1 damage to primary durability.
    [5/15/2016 9:58:55 PM] Item (Metal Scrap x7) crafted successfully
    [5/15/2016 9:58:55 PM] Successfully salvaged an item (Iron Scimitar ) for Metal Scrap  x7.
    [5/15/2016 9:59:01 PM] Item (Rusty Two-handed Sword) was destroyed during crafting.
    [5/15/2016 9:59:01 PM] Item (Smithing Hammer) took 2 damage to secondary durability.
    [5/15/2016 9:59:01 PM] Item (Smithing Hammer) took 1 damage to primary durability.
    [5/15/2016 9:59:01 PM] Item (Metal Scrap x5) crafted successfully
    [5/15/2016 9:59:01 PM] Successfully salvaged an item (Rusty Two-handed Sword ) for Metal Scrap  x5.
    [5/15/2016 9:59:05 PM] Item (Rusty Two-handed Sword) was destroyed during crafting.
    [5/15/2016 9:59:05 PM] Item (Smithing Hammer) took 2 damage to secondary durability.
    [5/15/2016 9:59:05 PM] Item (Smithing Hammer) took 1 damage to primary durability.
    [5/15/2016 9:59:05 PM] Item (Metal Scrap x5) crafted successfully
    [5/15/2016 9:59:05 PM] Successfully salvaged an item (Rusty Two-handed Sword ) for Metal Scrap  x5.
    [5/15/2016 9:59:08 PM] Item (Rusty Two-handed Sword) was destroyed during crafting.
    [5/15/2016 9:59:08 PM] Item (Smithing Hammer) took 2 damage to secondary durability.
    [5/15/2016 9:59:09 PM] Item (Smithing Hammer) took 1 damage to primary durability.
    [5/15/2016 9:59:09 PM] Item (Metal Scrap x5) crafted successfully
    [5/15/2016 9:59:09 PM] Successfully salvaged an item (Rusty Two-handed Sword ) for Metal Scrap  x5.
    [5/15/2016 9:59:12 PM] Item (Rusty Two-handed Sword) was destroyed during crafting.
    [5/15/2016 9:59:12 PM] Item (Smithing Hammer) took 2 damage to secondary durability.
    [5/15/2016 9:59:12 PM] Item (Smithing Hammer) took 1 damage to primary durability.
    [5/15/2016 9:59:12 PM] Item (Metal Scrap x5) crafted successfully
    [5/15/2016 9:59:12 PM] Successfully salvaged an item (Rusty Two-handed Sword ) for Metal Scrap  x5.
    [5/15/2016 9:59:19 PM] Player's skill (Blacksmithing Proficiency) has increased to level 62!
    [5/15/2016 9:59:19 PM] Item (Rusty Two-handed Sword) was destroyed during crafting.
    [5/15/2016 9:59:19 PM] Item (Smithing Hammer) took 1 damage to secondary durability.
    [5/15/2016 9:59:19 PM] Item (Smithing Hammer) took 1 damage to primary durability.
    [5/15/2016 9:59:19 PM] Item (Metal Scrap x23) crafted successfully
    [5/15/2016 9:59:19 PM] Successfully salvaged an item (Rusty Two-handed Sword ) for Metal Scrap  x23.
    [5/15/2016 9:59:28 PM] Item (Rusty Two-handed Sword) was destroyed during crafting.
    [5/15/2016 9:59:28 PM] Item (Smithing Hammer) took 1 damage to secondary durability.
    [5/15/2016 9:59:28 PM] Item (Smithing Hammer) took 1 damage to primary durability.
    [5/15/2016 9:59:28 PM] Item (Metal Scrap x23) crafted successfully
    [5/15/2016 9:59:28 PM] Successfully salvaged an item (Rusty Two-handed Sword ) for Metal Scrap  x23.
    [5/15/2016 9:59:33 PM] Item (Rusty Two-handed Sword) was destroyed during crafting.
    [5/15/2016 9:59:33 PM] Item (Smithing Hammer) took 2 damage to secondary durability.
    [5/15/2016 9:59:33 PM] Item (Smithing Hammer) took 1 damage to primary durability.
    [5/15/2016 9:59:33 PM] Item (Metal Scrap x5) crafted successfully
    [5/15/2016 9:59:33 PM] Successfully salvaged an item (Rusty Two-handed Sword ) for Metal Scrap  x5.
    [5/15/2016 9:59:46 PM] Item (Rusty Two-handed Sword) was destroyed during crafting.
    [5/15/2016 9:59:46 PM] Item (Smithing Hammer) took 2 damage to secondary durability.
    [5/15/2016 9:59:46 PM] Item (Smithing Hammer) took 1 damage to primary durability.
    [5/15/2016 9:59:46 PM] Item (Metal Scrap x5) crafted successfully
    [5/15/2016 9:59:46 PM] Successfully salvaged an item (Rusty Two-handed Sword ) for Metal Scrap  x5.
    [5/15/2016 9:59:47 PM] Item (Rusty Two-handed Sword) was destroyed during crafting.
    [5/15/2016 9:59:47 PM] Item (Smithing Hammer) took 2 damage to secondary durability.
    [5/15/2016 9:59:47 PM] Item (Smithing Hammer) took 1 damage to primary durability.
    [5/15/2016 9:59:47 PM] Item (Metal Scrap x5) crafted successfully
    [5/15/2016 9:59:47 PM] Successfully salvaged an item (Rusty Two-handed Sword ) for Metal Scrap  x5.
    [5/15/2016 9:59:49 PM] Item (Rusty Two-handed Sword) was destroyed during crafting.
    [5/15/2016 9:59:49 PM] Item (Smithing Hammer) took 2 damage to secondary durability.
    [5/15/2016 9:59:49 PM] Item (Smithing Hammer) took 1 damage to primary durability.
    [5/15/2016 9:59:49 PM] Item (Metal Scrap x5) crafted successfully
    [5/15/2016 9:59:49 PM] Successfully salvaged an item (Rusty Two-handed Sword ) for Metal Scrap  x5.
    [5/15/2016 9:59:50 PM] Item (Rusty Two-handed Sword) was destroyed during crafting.
    [5/15/2016 9:59:50 PM] Item (Smithing Hammer) took 2 damage to secondary durability.
    [5/15/2016 9:59:50 PM] Item (Smithing Hammer) took 1 damage to primary durability.
    [5/15/2016 9:59:50 PM] Item (Metal Scrap x5) crafted successfully
    [5/15/2016 9:59:50 PM] Successfully salvaged an item (Rusty Two-handed Sword ) for Metal Scrap  x5.
    [5/15/2016 9:59:51 PM] Item (Rusty Two-handed Sword) was destroyed during crafting.
    [5/15/2016 9:59:51 PM] Item (Smithing Hammer) took 2 damage to secondary durability.
    [5/15/2016 9:59:51 PM] Item (Smithing Hammer) took 1 damage to primary durability.
    [5/15/2016 9:59:51 PM] Item (Metal Scrap x5) crafted successfully
    [5/15/2016 9:59:51 PM] Successfully salvaged an item (Rusty Two-handed Sword ) for Metal Scrap  x5.
    [5/15/2016 9:59:53 PM] Item (Rusty Two-handed Sword) was destroyed during crafting.
    [5/15/2016 9:59:53 PM] Item (Smithing Hammer) took 2 damage to secondary durability.
    [5/15/2016 9:59:53 PM] Item (Smithing Hammer) took 1 damage to primary durability.
    [5/15/2016 9:59:53 PM] Item (Metal Scrap x5) crafted successfully
    [5/15/2016 9:59:53 PM] Successfully salvaged an item (Rusty Two-handed Sword ) for Metal Scrap  x5.
    ...
    [5/15/2016 10:01:31 PM] Item (Longsword) was destroyed during crafting.
    [5/15/2016 10:01:31 PM] Item (Smithing Hammer) took 2 damage to secondary durability.
    [5/15/2016 10:01:31 PM] Item (Smithing Hammer) took 1 damage to primary durability.
    [5/15/2016 10:01:31 PM] Item (Metal Scrap x5) crafted successfully
    [5/15/2016 10:01:31 PM] Successfully salvaged an item (Longsword ) for Metal Scrap  x5.
    [5/15/2016 10:01:34 PM] Item (Longsword) was destroyed during crafting.
    [5/15/2016 10:01:34 PM] Item (Smithing Hammer) took 1 damage to secondary durability.
    [5/15/2016 10:01:34 PM] Item (Smithing Hammer) took 1 damage to primary durability.
    [5/15/2016 10:01:34 PM] Item (Metal Scrap x22) crafted successfully
    [5/15/2016 10:01:34 PM] Successfully salvaged an item (Longsword ) for Metal Scrap  x22.
    [5/15/2016 10:01:37 PM] Item (Longsword) was destroyed during crafting.
    [5/15/2016 10:01:37 PM] Item (Smithing Hammer) took 1 damage to secondary durability.
    [5/15/2016 10:01:37 PM] Item (Smithing Hammer) took 1 damage to primary durability.
    [5/15/2016 10:01:37 PM] Item (Metal Scrap x22) crafted successfully
    [5/15/2016 10:01:37 PM] Successfully salvaged an item (Longsword ) for Metal Scrap  x22.
    [5/15/2016 10:01:42 PM] Item (Longsword) was destroyed during crafting.
    [5/15/2016 10:01:42 PM] Item (Smithing Hammer) took 2 damage to secondary durability.
    [5/15/2016 10:01:42 PM] Item (Smithing Hammer) took 1 damage to primary durability.
    [5/15/2016 10:01:42 PM] Item (Metal Scrap x5) crafted successfully
    [5/15/2016 10:01:42 PM] Successfully salvaged an item (Longsword ) for Metal Scrap  x5.
    [5/15/2016 10:01:46 PM] Item (Longsword) was destroyed during crafting.
    [5/15/2016 10:01:46 PM] Item (Smithing Hammer) took 1 damage to secondary durability.
    [5/15/2016 10:01:46 PM] Item (Smithing Hammer) took 1 damage to primary durability.
    [5/15/2016 10:01:46 PM] Item (Metal Scrap x22) crafted successfully
    [5/15/2016 10:01:46 PM] Successfully salvaged an item (Longsword ) for Metal Scrap  x22.
    [5/15/2016 10:01:52 PM] Player's skill (Blacksmithing Proficiency) has increased to level 63!
    [5/15/2016 10:01:52 PM] Item (Longsword) was destroyed during crafting.
    [5/15/2016 10:01:52 PM] Item (Smithing Hammer) took 2 damage to secondary durability.
    [5/15/2016 10:01:52 PM] Item (Smithing Hammer) took 1 damage to primary durability.
    [5/15/2016 10:01:52 PM] Item (Metal Scrap x5) crafted successfully
    [5/15/2016 10:01:52 PM] Successfully salvaged an item (Longsword ) for Metal Scrap  x5.
    [5/15/2016 10:01:56 PM] Item (Longsword) was destroyed during crafting.
    [5/15/2016 10:01:56 PM] Item (Smithing Hammer) took 2 damage to secondary durability.
    [5/15/2016 10:01:56 PM] Item (Smithing Hammer) took 1 damage to primary durability.
    [5/15/2016 10:01:56 PM] Item (Metal Scrap x5) crafted successfully
    [5/15/2016 10:01:56 PM] Successfully salvaged an item (Longsword ) for Metal Scrap  x5.
    [5/15/2016 10:03:04 PM] Item (Longsword) was destroyed during crafting.
    [5/15/2016 10:03:04 PM] Item (Smithing Hammer) took 2 damage to secondary durability.
    [5/15/2016 10:03:04 PM] Item (Smithing Hammer) took 1 damage to primary durability.
    [5/15/2016 10:03:04 PM] Item (Metal Scrap x5) crafted successfully
    [5/15/2016 10:03:04 PM] Successfully salvaged an item (Longsword ) for Metal Scrap  x5.
    [5/15/2016 10:03:09 PM] Item (Longsword) was destroyed during crafting.
    [5/15/2016 10:03:09 PM] Item (Smithing Hammer) took 2 damage to secondary durability.
    [5/15/2016 10:03:09 PM] Item (Smithing Hammer) took 1 damage to primary durability.
    [5/15/2016 10:03:09 PM] Item (Metal Scrap x5) crafted successfully
    [5/15/2016 10:03:09 PM] Successfully salvaged an item (Longsword ) for Metal Scrap  x5.
    [5/15/2016 10:03:12 PM] Item (Longsword) was destroyed during crafting.
    [5/15/2016 10:03:12 PM] Item (Smithing Hammer) took 2 damage to secondary durability.
    [5/15/2016 10:03:12 PM] Item (Smithing Hammer) took 1 damage to primary durability.
    [5/15/2016 10:03:12 PM] Item (Metal Scrap x5) crafted successfully
    [5/15/2016 10:03:12 PM] Successfully salvaged an item (Longsword ) for Metal Scrap  x5.
    [5/15/2016 10:03:15 PM] Item (Longsword) was destroyed during crafting.
    [5/15/2016 10:03:15 PM] Item (Smithing Hammer) took 1 damage to secondary durability.
    [5/15/2016 10:03:15 PM] Item (Smithing Hammer) took 1 damage to primary durability.
    [5/15/2016 10:03:15 PM] Item (Metal Scrap x22) crafted successfully
    [5/15/2016 10:03:15 PM] Successfully salvaged an item (Longsword ) for Metal Scrap  x22.
    [5/15/2016 10:03:19 PM] Item (Longsword) was destroyed during crafting.
    [5/15/2016 10:03:19 PM] Item (Smithing Hammer) took 2 damage to secondary durability.
    [5/15/2016 10:03:19 PM] Item (Smithing Hammer) took 1 damage to primary durability.
    [5/15/2016 10:03:19 PM] Item (Metal Scrap x5) crafted successfully
    [5/15/2016 10:03:19 PM] Successfully salvaged an item (Longsword ) for Metal Scrap  x5.
    [5/15/2016 10:03:25 PM] Item (Longsword) was destroyed during crafting.
    [5/15/2016 10:03:25 PM] Item (Smithing Hammer) took 2 damage to secondary durability.
    [5/15/2016 10:03:25 PM] Item (Smithing Hammer) took 1 damage to primary durability.
    [5/15/2016 10:03:25 PM] Item (Metal Scrap x5) crafted successfully
    [5/15/2016 10:03:25 PM] Successfully salvaged an item (Longsword ) for Metal Scrap  x5.
    [5/15/2016 10:03:55 PM] Item (Chunk of Coal) was destroyed during crafting.
    [5/15/2016 10:03:55 PM] Item (Smelting Tongs) took 2 damage to secondary durability.
    [5/15/2016 10:03:55 PM] Item (Smelting Tongs) took 1 damage to primary durability.
    [5/15/2016 10:03:55 PM] Item (Ingot Mold) took 2 damage to secondary durability.
    [5/15/2016 10:03:55 PM] Item (Ingot Mold) took 1 damage to primary durability.
    [5/15/2016 10:03:55 PM] You failed to craft an item (Recipe: Copper Ingot from Metal Scraps). All fuels were consumed.
    [5/15/2016 10:03:59 PM] Item (Copper Ore) was destroyed during crafting.
    [5/15/2016 10:03:59 PM] Item (Metal Scrap) was destroyed during crafting.
    [5/15/2016 10:03:59 PM] Item (Chunk of Coal) was destroyed during crafting.
    [5/15/2016 10:03:59 PM] Item (Smelting Tongs) took 1 damage to secondary durability.
    [5/15/2016 10:03:59 PM] Item (Smelting Tongs) took 1 damage to primary durability.
    [5/15/2016 10:03:59 PM] Item (Ingot Mold) took 1 damage to secondary durability.
    [5/15/2016 10:03:59 PM] Item (Ingot Mold) took 1 damage to primary durability.
    [5/15/2016 10:03:59 PM] Item (Copper Ingot x1) crafted successfully
    [5/15/2016 10:03:59 PM] Item crafted: Recipe: Copper Ingot from Metal Scraps.
    [5/15/2016 10:04:01 PM] Item (Copper Ore) was destroyed during crafting.
    [5/15/2016 10:04:01 PM] Item (Metal Scrap) was destroyed during crafting.
    [5/15/2016 10:04:01 PM] Item (Chunk of Coal) was destroyed during crafting.
    [5/15/2016 10:04:01 PM] Item (Smelting Tongs) took 1 damage to secondary durability.
    [5/15/2016 10:04:01 PM] Item (Smelting Tongs) took 1 damage to primary durability.
    [5/15/2016 10:04:01 PM] Item (Ingot Mold) took 1 damage to secondary durability.
    [5/15/2016 10:04:01 PM] Item (Ingot Mold) took 1 damage to primary durability.
    [5/15/2016 10:04:01 PM] Item (Copper Ingot x1) crafted successfully
    [5/15/2016 10:04:01 PM] Item crafted: Recipe: Copper Ingot from Metal Scraps.
    [5/15/2016 10:04:04 PM] Item (Copper Ore) was destroyed during crafting.
    [5/15/2016 10:04:04 PM] Item (Metal Scrap) was destroyed during crafting.
    [5/15/2016 10:04:04 PM] Item (Chunk of Coal) was destroyed during crafting.
    [5/15/2016 10:04:04 PM] Item (Smelting Tongs) took 1 damage to secondary durability.
    [5/15/2016 10:04:04 PM] Item (Smelting Tongs) took 1 damage to primary durability.
    [5/15/2016 10:04:04 PM] Item (Ingot Mold) took 1 damage to secondary durability.
    [5/15/2016 10:04:04 PM] Item (Ingot Mold) took 1 damage to primary durability.
    [5/15/2016 10:04:04 PM] Item (Copper Ingot x1) crafted successfully
    [5/15/2016 10:04:04 PM] Item crafted: Recipe: Copper Ingot from Metal Scraps.
    [5/15/2016 10:04:07 PM] Player's skill (Smelting Proficiency) has increased to level 63!
    [5/15/2016 10:04:07 PM] Item (Copper Ore) was destroyed during crafting.
    [5/15/2016 10:04:07 PM] Item (Metal Scrap) was destroyed during crafting.
    [5/15/2016 10:04:07 PM] Item (Chunk of Coal) was destroyed during crafting.
    [5/15/2016 10:04:07 PM] Item (Smelting Tongs) took 1 damage to secondary durability.
    [5/15/2016 10:04:07 PM] Item (Smelting Tongs) took 1 damage to primary durability.
    [5/15/2016 10:04:07 PM] Item (Ingot Mold) took 1 damage to secondary durability.
    [5/15/2016 10:04:07 PM] Item (Ingot Mold) took 1 damage to primary durability.
    [5/15/2016 10:04:07 PM] Item (Copper Ingot x1) crafted successfully
    [5/15/2016 10:04:07 PM] Item crafted: Recipe: Copper Ingot from Metal Scraps.
    [5/15/2016 10:04:10 PM] Item (Copper Ore) was destroyed during crafting.
    [5/15/2016 10:04:10 PM] Item (Metal Scrap) was destroyed during crafting.
    [5/15/2016 10:04:10 PM] Item (Chunk of Coal) was destroyed during crafting.
    [5/15/2016 10:04:10 PM] Item (Smelting Tongs) took 1 damage to secondary durability.
    [5/15/2016 10:04:10 PM] Item (Smelting Tongs) took 1 damage to primary durability.
    [5/15/2016 10:04:10 PM] Item (Ingot Mold) took 1 damage to secondary durability.
    [5/15/2016 10:04:10 PM] Item (Ingot Mold) took 1 damage to primary durability.
    [5/15/2016 10:04:10 PM] Item (Copper Ingot x1) crafted successfully
    [5/15/2016 10:04:10 PM] Item crafted: Recipe: Copper Ingot from Metal Scraps.
    [5/15/2016 10:04:13 PM] Item (Copper Ore) was destroyed during crafting.
    [5/15/2016 10:04:13 PM] Item (Metal Scrap) was destroyed during crafting.
    [5/15/2016 10:04:13 PM] Item (Chunk of Coal) was destroyed during crafting.
    [5/15/2016 10:04:13 PM] Item (Smelting Tongs) took 1 damage to secondary durability.
    [5/15/2016 10:04:13 PM] Item (Smelting Tongs) took 1 damage to primary durability.
    [5/15/2016 10:04:13 PM] Item (Ingot Mold) took 1 damage to secondary durability.
    [5/15/2016 10:04:13 PM] Item (Ingot Mold) took 1 damage to primary durability.
    [5/15/2016 10:04:13 PM] Item (Copper Ingot x1) crafted successfully
    [5/15/2016 10:04:13 PM] Item crafted: Recipe: Copper Ingot from Metal Scraps.
    [5/15/2016 10:04:16 PM] Item (Copper Ore) was destroyed during crafting.
    [5/15/2016 10:04:16 PM] Item (Metal Scrap) was destroyed during crafting.
    [5/15/2016 10:04:16 PM] Item (Chunk of Coal) was destroyed during crafting.
    [5/15/2016 10:04:16 PM] Item (Smelting Tongs) took 1 damage to secondary durability.
    [5/15/2016 10:04:16 PM] Item (Smelting Tongs) took 1 damage to primary durability.
    [5/15/2016 10:04:16 PM] Item (Ingot Mold) took 1 damage to secondary durability.
    [5/15/2016 10:04:16 PM] Item (Ingot Mold) took 1 damage to primary durability.
    [5/15/2016 10:04:16 PM] Item (Copper Ingot x1) crafted successfully
    [5/15/2016 10:04:16 PM] Item crafted: Recipe: Copper Ingot from Metal Scraps.
    [5/15/2016 10:04:19 PM] Item (Copper Ore) was destroyed during crafting.
    [5/15/2016 10:04:19 PM] Item (Metal Scrap) was destroyed during crafting.
    [5/15/2016 10:04:19 PM] Item (Chunk of Coal) was destroyed during crafting.
    [5/15/2016 10:04:19 PM] Item (Smelting Tongs) took 1 damage to secondary durability.
    [5/15/2016 10:04:19 PM] Item (Smelting Tongs) took 1 damage to primary durability.
    [5/15/2016 10:04:19 PM] Item (Ingot Mold) took 1 damage to secondary durability.
    [5/15/2016 10:04:19 PM] Item (Ingot Mold) took 1 damage to primary durability.
    [5/15/2016 10:04:19 PM] Item (Copper Ingot x1) crafted successfully
    [5/15/2016 10:04:19 PM] Item crafted: Recipe: Copper Ingot from Metal Scraps.
    [5/15/2016 10:04:22 PM] Item (Copper Ore) was destroyed during crafting.
    [5/15/2016 10:04:22 PM] Item (Metal Scrap) was destroyed during crafting.
    [5/15/2016 10:04:22 PM] Item (Chunk of Coal) was destroyed during crafting.
    [5/15/2016 10:04:22 PM] Item (Smelting Tongs) took 1 damage to secondary durability.
    [5/15/2016 10:04:22 PM] Item (Smelting Tongs) took 1 damage to primary durability.
    [5/15/2016 10:04:22 PM] Item (Ingot Mold) took 1 damage to secondary durability.
    [5/15/2016 10:04:22 PM] Item (Ingot Mold) took 1 damage to primary durability.
    [5/15/2016 10:04:22 PM] Item (Copper Ingot x1) crafted successfully
    [5/15/2016 10:04:22 PM] Item crafted: Recipe: Copper Ingot from Metal Scraps.
    [5/15/2016 10:04:25 PM] Item (Copper Ore) was destroyed during crafting.
    [5/15/2016 10:04:25 PM] Item (Metal Scrap) was destroyed during crafting.
    [5/15/2016 10:04:25 PM] Item (Chunk of Coal) was destroyed during crafting.
    [5/15/2016 10:04:25 PM] Item (Smelting Tongs) took 1 damage to secondary durability.
    [5/15/2016 10:04:25 PM] Item (Smelting Tongs) took 1 damage to primary durability.
    [5/15/2016 10:04:25 PM] Item (Ingot Mold) took 1 damage to secondary durability.
    [5/15/2016 10:04:25 PM] Item (Ingot Mold) took 1 damage to primary durability.
    [5/15/2016 10:04:25 PM] Item (Copper Ingot x1) crafted successfully
    [5/15/2016 10:04:25 PM] Item crafted: Recipe: Copper Ingot from Metal Scraps.
    [5/15/2016 10:04:28 PM] Item (Copper Ore) was destroyed during crafting.
    [5/15/2016 10:04:28 PM] Item (Metal Scrap) was destroyed during crafting.
    [5/15/2016 10:04:28 PM] Item (Chunk of Coal) was destroyed during crafting.
    [5/15/2016 10:04:28 PM] Item (Smelting Tongs) took 1 damage to secondary durability.
    [5/15/2016 10:04:28 PM] Item (Smelting Tongs) took 1 damage to primary durability.
    [5/15/2016 10:04:28 PM] Item (Ingot Mold) took 1 damage to secondary durability.
    [5/15/2016 10:04:28 PM] Item (Ingot Mold) took 1 damage to primary durability.
    [5/15/2016 10:04:28 PM] Item (Copper Ingot x1) crafted successfully
    [5/15/2016 10:04:28 PM] Item crafted: Recipe: Copper Ingot from Metal Scraps.
    [5/15/2016 10:04:31 PM] Item (Copper Ore) was destroyed during crafting.
    [5/15/2016 10:04:31 PM] Item (Metal Scrap) was destroyed during crafting.
    [5/15/2016 10:04:31 PM] Item (Chunk of Coal) was destroyed during crafting.
    [5/15/2016 10:04:31 PM] Item (Smelting Tongs) took 1 damage to secondary durability.
    [5/15/2016 10:04:31 PM] Item (Smelting Tongs) took 1 damage to primary durability.
    [5/15/2016 10:04:31 PM] Item (Ingot Mold) took 1 damage to secondary durability.
    [5/15/2016 10:04:31 PM] Item (Ingot Mold) took 1 damage to primary durability.
    [5/15/2016 10:04:31 PM] Item (Copper Ingot x1) crafted successfully
    [5/15/2016 10:04:31 PM] Item crafted: Recipe: Copper Ingot from Metal Scraps.
    [5/15/2016 10:06:51 PM] Item (Chunk of Coal) was destroyed during crafting.
    [5/15/2016 10:06:51 PM] Item (Smithing Hammer) took 2 damage to secondary durability.
    [5/15/2016 10:06:51 PM] Item (Smithing Hammer) took 1 damage to primary durability.
    [5/15/2016 10:06:51 PM] Item (Great Axe Head Mold) took 2 damage to secondary durability.
    [5/15/2016 10:06:51 PM] Item (Great Axe Head Mold) took 1 damage to primary durability.
    [5/15/2016 10:06:51 PM] You failed to craft an item (Recipe: Copper Great Axe Blade). All fuels were consumed.
    [5/15/2016 10:06:59 PM] Item (Copper Ingot) was destroyed during crafting.
    [5/15/2016 10:06:59 PM] Item (Chunk of Coal) was destroyed during crafting.
    [5/15/2016 10:06:59 PM] Item (Smithing Hammer) took 1 damage to secondary durability.
    [5/15/2016 10:06:59 PM] Item (Smithing Hammer) took 1 damage to primary durability.
    [5/15/2016 10:06:59 PM] Item (Great Axe Head Mold) took 1 damage to secondary durability.
    [5/15/2016 10:06:59 PM] Item (Great Axe Head Mold) took 1 damage to primary durability.
    [5/15/2016 10:06:59 PM] Item (Copper Great Axe Blade x1) crafted successfully
    [5/15/2016 10:06:59 PM] Item crafted: Recipe: Copper Great Axe Blade.
    [5/15/2016 10:10:39 PM] Player's skill (Milling Proficiency) has increased to level 14!
    [5/15/2016 10:10:39 PM] Item (Creosote) was destroyed during crafting.
    [5/15/2016 10:10:39 PM] Item (Cubit Measure) took 2 damage to secondary durability.
    [5/15/2016 10:10:39 PM] Item (Cubit Measure) took 1 damage to primary durability.
    [5/15/2016 10:10:39 PM] You failed to craft an item (Recipe: Pine Timber). All fuels were consumed.
    [5/15/2016 10:11:25 PM] Player's skill (Milling Proficiency) has increased to level 15!
    [5/15/2016 10:11:25 PM] Item (Creosote) was destroyed during crafting.
    [5/15/2016 10:11:25 PM] Item (Cubit Measure) took 2 damage to secondary durability.
    [5/15/2016 10:11:25 PM] Item (Cubit Measure) took 1 damage to primary durability.
    [5/15/2016 10:11:25 PM] You failed to craft an item (Recipe: Pine Timber). All fuels were consumed.
    [5/15/2016 10:11:31 PM] Player's skill (Milling Proficiency) has increased to level 16!
    [5/15/2016 10:11:31 PM] Item (Pine Wood) was destroyed during crafting.
    [5/15/2016 10:11:31 PM] Item (Wood Scrap) was destroyed during crafting.
    [5/15/2016 10:11:31 PM] Item (Creosote) was destroyed during crafting.
    [5/15/2016 10:11:31 PM] Item (Cubit Measure) took 1 damage to secondary durability.
    [5/15/2016 10:11:31 PM] Item (Cubit Measure) took 1 damage to primary durability.
    [5/15/2016 10:11:31 PM] Item (Pine Timber x2) crafted successfully
    [5/15/2016 10:11:31 PM] Item crafted: Recipe: Pine Timber.
    [5/15/2016 10:11:48 PM] Player's skill (Milling Proficiency) has increased to level 17!
    [5/15/2016 10:11:48 PM] Item (Pine Timber) was destroyed during crafting.
    [5/15/2016 10:11:48 PM] Item (Wax) was destroyed during crafting.
    [5/15/2016 10:11:48 PM] Item (Cubit Measure) took 1 damage to secondary durability.
    [5/15/2016 10:11:48 PM] Item (Cubit Measure) took 1 damage to primary durability.
    [5/15/2016 10:11:48 PM] Item (Pine Strip x2) crafted successfully
    [5/15/2016 10:11:48 PM] Item crafted: Recipe: Pine Strip.
    [5/15/2016 10:12:22 PM] Player's skill (Carpentry Proficiency) has increased to level 43!
    [5/15/2016 10:12:22 PM] Item (Pine Timber) was destroyed during crafting.
    [5/15/2016 10:12:22 PM] Item (Wax) was destroyed during crafting.
    [5/15/2016 10:12:22 PM] Item (Carpentry Hammer) took 1 damage to secondary durability.
    [5/15/2016 10:12:22 PM] Item (Carpentry Hammer) took 1 damage to primary durability.
    [5/15/2016 10:12:22 PM] Item (Pine Handle x1) crafted successfully
    [5/15/2016 10:12:22 PM] Item crafted: Recipe: Pine Handle.
    [5/15/2016 10:12:44 PM] Item (Wax) was destroyed during crafting.
    [5/15/2016 10:12:44 PM] Item (Carpentry Hammer) took 2 damage to secondary durability.
    [5/15/2016 10:12:44 PM] Item (Carpentry Hammer) took 1 damage to primary durability.
    [5/15/2016 10:12:44 PM] You failed to craft an item (Recipe: Great Axe). All fuels were consumed.
    [5/15/2016 10:12:49 PM] You do not have the ingredients to craft the recipe. Please make sure you have all the ingredients required and that all tools have durability.
    [5/15/2016 10:13:24 PM] Item (Wax) was destroyed during crafting.
    [5/15/2016 10:13:24 PM] Item (Carpentry Hammer) took 2 damage to secondary durability.
    [5/15/2016 10:13:24 PM] Item (Carpentry Hammer) took 1 damage to primary durability.
    [5/15/2016 10:13:24 PM] You failed to craft an item (Recipe: Great Axe). All fuels were consumed.
    [5/15/2016 10:13:32 PM] Player's skill (Carpentry Proficiency) has increased to level 44!
    [5/15/2016 10:13:32 PM] Item (Wax) was destroyed during crafting.
    [5/15/2016 10:13:32 PM] Item (Carpentry Hammer) took 2 damage to secondary durability.
    [5/15/2016 10:13:32 PM] Item (Carpentry Hammer) took 1 damage to primary durability.
    [5/15/2016 10:13:32 PM] You failed to craft an item (Recipe: Great Axe). All fuels were consumed.
    [5/15/2016 10:13:40 PM] Item (Copper Great Axe Blade) was destroyed during crafting.
    [5/15/2016 10:13:40 PM] Item (Pine Handle) was destroyed during crafting.
    [5/15/2016 10:13:40 PM] Item (Wax) was destroyed during crafting.
    [5/15/2016 10:13:40 PM] Item (Carpentry Hammer) took 1 damage to secondary durability.
    [5/15/2016 10:13:40 PM] Item (Carpentry Hammer) took 1 damage to primary durability.
    [5/15/2016 10:13:40 PM] Item (Great Axe x1) crafted successfully
    [5/15/2016 10:13:40 PM] Item crafted: Recipe: Great Axe.
    
     
    Lazlo likes this.
  12. Lazlo

    Lazlo Avatar

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    So far I've done 300 trials making spools of cotton thread with skill level locked at 16 and a displayed success rate of 51%. I avoided using any special tools so that I would not have any modifiers.

    In 300 trials I had 160 successes and 140 failures, which is a 53.3% success rate. The margin of error for 300 trials is approximately 4.4%, which means that my result was within the margin of error. I'll run some more trials when I get a chance.
     
    Last edited: Jun 1, 2016
    Lace, Quenton, Gix and 3 others like this.
  13. Curt

    Curt Avatar

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    The number of times you made a specific item should give a bonus to success/crit chance in my oppinion
    A blacksmith that made 1000 shortswords and 1 round shield should have higher chance when making a shortsword.
     
  14. Oba Evesor

    Oba Evesor Avatar

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    @Lazlo I agree, crafting base materials, like spools of thread, feels like the numbers are correct. Same w/smelting or milling.
    This is specifically about enchanting/master-working numbers. Maybe they feel wrong because I lose everything when I fail and I'm just not noticing my failures the other times.
    But...

     
  15. Korim Rackham

    Korim Rackham Avatar

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    Personally i think this applies to the game as a whole, not just crafting.
     
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  16. gsoul

    gsoul Avatar

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    Sorry if this has already been said, but devs should have access to all the logs to confirm or deny (statistically at the very least) whether or not the RNG is working. They may consider going with quasi-random numbers (have the look and feel of random to a human being without being strictly random - or as random as a computer can be) instead.
     
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  17. Roycestein Kaelstrom

    Roycestein Kaelstrom Avatar

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    The way it normally works with game-related RNG is that the % chance normally represent the range of the numbers.

    For simplicity, let's say we have integer RNG. 90% success chance would mean if the numbers from 0-8 would consider to be a success and 9 for a failure. However, there could be time that the RNG return sequence of 179999999999884223, which yield failure streaks because RNG number sequence does not guarantee to be equally distributed randomized sequence of value.
     
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  18. monkeysmack

    monkeysmack Avatar

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    Oba Evesor and agra like this.
  19. Duke Aventine

    Duke Aventine Avatar

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    Crafting failure is a big turn off to me as well.

    However, shouldn't the system have some difficulty level other than putting pieces and part on a table and hitting a button? As is, the open post describes the difficulty being in the collection. Is that right? Should the difficulty only be in the effort to collect? What about crafters who buy supplies from other gatherers? Should they always be successful?

    Not sure how to make it fun, but crafting failure seems necessary. Other games made it fun by eliminating failure and making gathering the hard part. Not sure that is the best answer.
     
    Lord Dreamo likes this.
  20. Spoon

    Spoon Bug Brigade - Bug Hunter

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    The RNG has been reported a couple of times, each Chris and the dev teams has stated that it works as it should.

    I personally think that sure sometimes I might be unlucky but being consistently that unlucky isn't consistent, if you get what I mean.
    So what I do nowadays instead of reporting the RNG over again is to relog if I hit a too unlucky streak. My very subjective experience of doing that has so far been very satisfactory since I feel it restarts the RNG and ends the streak.
    However please note that that is a perception based on conjecture so wouldn't necessarily be true.

    What I truly suspect is that the % displayed is not the actual % rolled. Instead there are hidden modifiers which are not included.
    https://www.shroudoftheavatar.com/f...-for-high-tier-or-at-least-the-message.22633/