Lot deed Raffle/Lottery update!

Umm people if those %'s are anything like thier crafting $'s do not buy tickets. Not one % on any tool tip on any skill is accurate at all.

 

OK I will break this down simple say this is how many ticket sold 759 in total
with each draw n omatter how many time until they run out of things to give away -

they guy who bought 600has a 79% chance each time
88 11%
23 3%
16 2%
12 1.5%
11 1.4%
9 1.1%

This goes until all 75 are drawn now of course if the guy who bought 600 get the first 10 then his chances go down a little and the rest go up a little this is a Raffle with 75 prizes and 759 tickets where sold.

Simple math, no need to go further or try and explain more I know the difference between a lottery and a raffle all I am trying to poin tout is this is a Raffle where the odds are not yet known and can not be until th elast ticket is sold

and in no way can odds for a future raffle be given unless as stated 10 tickets get me a 50% chance of winning which means ONLY 20 tickets are sold.

remember there are only 75 drawings so not all may win

 

I see folks posting about future Free Raffle tickets (Past R34) . I didn't see anything claiming this was more than a one shot deal for R34. Can anyone point out where this was stated or could we get a clarification.

 

irrelevant this or next = BAD math

 

The guy that bought 600 tickets has POT tickets, not Place Anywhere tickets, your example clearly shows the Place Anywhere numbers ("until all 75 are drawn"). Let's see your math again, because that makes it completely wrong.

 

from another game =

but math is simple

https://www.reddit.com/r/runescape/comments/2f7wiy/want_to_calculate_your_odds_of_winning_a_raffle/

 

The free raffle tickets are a one time thing, R34 only.

 

That's what I always thought.

 

He was giving odds for the current raffle with the current (at that time) amount of tickets that had been sold. Of course it changes as more tickets are sold and how much it changes depends on how many more are sold.

Also like someone mentioned the guy who bought 600 tickets bought POT tickets, which there are 600 prizes for.

 

Who's math? Mine...R34+ nope it's all ballpark subject math so take it for what it is, an low end estimate for the "Free pony" era. Mine...R33: 75 divided by 0.0744% = 1008.0645161 Anywhere Deeds and 600 divided by 0.2302 = 2606.429192 therefore my quoted 1008 and 2606 are accurate to the % provided in #14 of this thread.

V/R Brickbat

 

Not yours, I didn't check your math. I was noticing Weins math, and he was using numbers against the 600 ticket buyer... anyway, just pointing out his example was incorrect. Not yours, yours seems good to me. Unless you were also comparing the 600 POT tickets purchased against the 75 Place anywhere prizes mentioned?

 

For what it's worth, I was able to replicate the percentages that Chris put in his second post to within a few tenths of a percent (rounding error maybe?). I used your numbers for tickets sold and my rudimentary understanding of how to calculate probability for 600 conditional events.

Calculate win probability for each draw: Your tix/total remaining
Calc NO win prob for each draw: 1 - (win prob)
Multiply no win prob for all 600 draws to obtain total probability of no wins
Calc total win prob: 1 - (total no win prob)

I haven't figured out how he came to his "even odds" number though. For example, he lists odds for 3 tickets in the POT raffle at 53%. Perhaps the 21.7k gold is the one figure includes a projection of the final total?

Probability has never been one of my strong suits though.

 

His second post odds are you winning in 1 raffle with x # of tickets...so the odds that you hit at least once in 20 for example with your 20 Anywhere Deeds, etc. I only used the 1 ticket % to reverse to total tickets sold.

Found this (have fun) - https://www.reddit.com/r/runescape/comments/2f7wiy/want_to_calculate_your_odds_of_winning_a_raffle/

 

To little to late. The screw job was in for the people who already had a piece of land...damn them straight to hell for contributing to the game.

 

This lotery look strange to my eyes ........ Poor players who expect the SotA launch to play ........ Maybe one day the price of taxable POT deed become lower than the prices of lotery ticket ???




... so i will log to get a ticket

 

Weins201 - Reread the Chris posts, he clearly states that the numbers and % are for this time R33 not the "Everyone gets a Free pony" (eg. lottery tickets x2 if claimed) next time R34.

This time - it's interesting that throwing out the alleged 1 large buyer of 600 POT Only Lottery Tickets you get nearly equal amounts of gold spent in each category.

23.11 Mil Gold spent on this gold sink so far.

V/R Brickbat

 

I'm still a bit confused, and statistics are an odd thing to throw %s at. This is not a Lottery, its a Raffle no matter how you spin it. Your percentages change each time a ticket is purchased, and conversely, changes again as tickets are drawn during the final pull of tickets. I can say tho without a shadow of doubt that you cannot say if you buy 25 tickets you have a 98% chance of winning. True that your odds are greatly increased, but to put such a high percentage on it is not very good to do. You could buy 25 tickets and still not win a single deed, and yes that constitutes a 2% chance, but its still odd to state.


for giggles I bought a ticket.. I am saddened that there is not a number on the ticket. I would like to see the numbers listed and be able to cross check to see if I have won, it would make it more real to me. would make me feel like I was at an actual raffle or checking my lottery tickets.

 

Is one free 10k and 5k tickets per person who did support SOTA just not enough to own land really that big of a deal?! They have to login and claim it, so only active players can qualify. If you already own land, why are you sooo upset about this?

As someone who has spent over $3,000 on SOTA and owns 4 deeds myself. I am happy for those who might not have as much disposable income as me to get a free chance at owning land.

SOTA will not survive on whales alone and housing is a huge fun aspect of the game.