Lot deed Raffle/Lottery update!

It is my understanding that the free tickets thing is a once-only event.

 

I am quite sure I have read, that once your account has ever owned a deed before you no longer qualify for a free ticket - I can't find the posts in the depths of the forum though. Maybe someone can confirm?

 

I believe it said something along those lines... but I'd check the post on the website and not dig through forums for latest information.

Also, why not Oprah this drawing?! YOU GET A TICKET, AND YOU GET A TICKET, AND YOU GET A TICKET, AND EVERYONE GETS A TICKET!

 

In a hindsight world where I had foreseen the socialism aspect of this Raffle, I would have bought 500 $45 accounts instead of all the other stuff I bought. Then been in the mix for free raffle tickets for a long, long time and sold the resulting free items to recoup my investment. Yes, I would have had to spend the entire month logging accounts in and culling/the winning accounts off a list of 500 accounts. And 500 e-mails...would have been annoying.

But seriously, thanks for the information.

V/R Brickbat

 

Or you could spend about 70k in POT raffle tickets and 130k in place anywhere tickets for this raffle and have VERY good odds at winning at least one deed.

Likewise you could take that $45*500 accounts (even half of that, maybe a quarter) and spend it on in game gold and give yourself even better odds than buying 500 accounts.

 

If you're gonna spend $45 x 500 for some chance to win a lot deed, might as well buy the lot deeds from add-on store or other players.

 

Maybe...but the die has been cast and I don't have 500 accounts...and I agree that the odds this time should be better than in future releases when the "Free pony" tickets drastically reduce the current pools odds.

Getting a feel for participation levels is interesting and I am surprised as many POT only tickets as have been sold have been sold.

V/R Brickbat

 

So, the front-site post @Berek made, I assume today, says "One Day Left" in a post that has no actual published date, nor does it list any drop-dead dates/times for purchasing tickets.

This forum post was created by @Chris today who says "a few days left to buy your ticket" but again, no actual drop-dead date, just the morning of R34's release.

Is the drop dead date the time of the drawing? Is it the moment R34 goes live? Is it a few hours before? Regardless, actual times would be real helpful to those who are trying to grind every last bit.

 

So I wouldn't be trying to get 1 deed, I'd be trying to get 500 deeds (eventually).

Pretty sure the accounts would have been better use of $ than converting $ to gold because -

500 chances * 5,000 gold = 2.5 Mil Gold (POT Only)
500 chances * 10,000 gold = 5 Mil Gold (Anywhere)
= 7.5 Mil gold

7.5 Mil gold / 1,000 gold per COTO (about the best you could expect to get gold per COTO) = 7,500 COTO = $6375 per month (and this kind of additional COTO to Gold Conversion would crash the market particularly month after month) = so basically about 4 months worth of this would equal ($25,500) a bit more than 500 $45 accounts ($22,500).

So with the accounts I would keep being in the mix for possibly 2 wins in a given month and probably 1 win eventually.

So let's just pretend that EVERY single $25-45 account logs in and competes in the "Free pony" raffles each month...then:
53,000 / my 500 Accounts = roughly a 0.94% chance per month to win a Deed in a given lottery so that = 0.7 Anywhere and 5.64 POT Only Deeds = which is like 6.34 Deeds per Month so let's call it midpoint 4 Village Lots a month in value to sell on the market (to account for the City-Town-Village-Row lot possibilities and the midpoint in value for said deeds). Blah, blah, blah...diminishing returns...odds stay relatively the same and assuming the mix of Deeds in the raffle stay the same then...so that's what $1,500-2,000 a month on the open market => recoup cost in approximately 14-16 months. If much less log in then faster return on investment.

I certainly don't earn 7.5 Mil a month in Gold a month, if you do then your a way better player than I am. Enjoy the proceeds of your efforts!

V/R Brickbat

 

That's assuming you get a free raffle ticket on each homeless account every raffle. I'm not so sure that's how it works, unless I've missed something. I thought you just got ONE free raffle ticket ever and that was it for the account.

 

Ok I am not going to go to deep into this but the odds of winning are in no way close to 1 in 13.44

The below is a direct paste from an odds calculator -

A to B Odds Probability
A : B
:

Answer:
For 1 to 13.44 odds of Winning;

Probability of Winning:
0.930748

Chance of winning:
93.07%

this is from a simple google math look up what you are saying is there is a 93% chance of winning, not right.

There is absolutely no way to calculate the odds of winning a raffle until all the tickets are sold so the number of tickets sold can be compared to the possible of wining one - for the place anywhere that is 75 out of total tickets sold. (or a finite number avail is reached)

Again if this is truly a lottery how is it working? what are my winning numbers and how can it be shown to be fair - it cannot there is no accountability??

If you are pulling a ticket out of a "box" = Raffle. Odds = number tickets to win out of total sold (75 out of total ticket in box(or finite number reached))

and the statement saying that to get a 50/50 chance I would have to spend 134,000 gold that is actually less than 13 tickets so to be 50 / 50 chance that means for the 75 winning tickets then only (( how many)) tickets are in the raffle? if I by 13 and end up with 50 / 50 then there are only 1008 tickets in raffle?

But as soon as I by 13 tickets that is 13 more in the pool - either there is a finite number of tickets avail or there is a secret number which is it?

Now if there is truly only 1000 tickets sold then I conceded but again until sale stop and the total number of tickets sold is compared to the one I have then . . . .

They are even called raffle tickets in the game ????? SO at some point all tickets should either be sold or odds are recalculated.

In the end if only 150 tickets where sold for the place anywhere then there would be a 50 / 50 chance if I bought 1 (one) as soon as more tickets are sold odds of my 1 ticket winning go down.

Now looking at the POT only deeds I already know that on guy bought 600 tickets , and I can still purchase 1000 of each if so desired ????

Here is lottery odds -

Probability of winning[edit]
The chances of winning a lottery jackpot can vary widely depending on the lottery design, and are determined by several factors, including the count of possible numbers, the count of winning numbers drawn, whether or not order is significant, and whether drawn numbers are returned for the possibility of further drawing.

 

You get one free raffle ticket for the Anywhere Deed Raffle and one free ticket for the POT Only Deed Raffle = so two tickets and two chances each month until you win one deed then your out of "Free pony" category the next month. So 1 shot at the 75 Anywhere Deeds and 1 shot at the 600 POT Only Deeds.

V/R Brickbat

 

For this to be 50% chance at winning a raffle then only 19 or 20 tickets are sold, something is very very wrong with wording of these ((Lotteries / raffles))

 

1 in 13.44 is a 92.5% chance of losing, not a93.07% chance of winning.

You're correct that the odds will keep changing, but all Chris did was give us the odds at that time, he cannot provide future odds as they will keep changing.

There's 75 deeds. So that means a 50% chance of winning with 10 tickets purchased implies 1500 tickets were sold in this category. 75(10/1500)=0.5

 

he did already for the next lottery ????

1 to 13 if 93% chance ot win not lose sorry but simple math.

 

His odds are for the current lottery based on the number of tickets that had sold at the time of his posting. The post was intended to increase sales which I imagine they will

 

Yeah, I meant one of each. Where have they said you keep getting a free one each lottery until you win?

 

His second post provided actual odds and I calculated the exact number of tickets sold at that point:

1008 Place Anywhere Deed Tier
2606 POT Only Deed Tier

Obviously, they will keep changing (eg. going down with more participation) in any given raffle/lottery.

V/R Brickbat

 

wrong that is for the NEXT lottery not this one.

Again it is simple there is NO way yo calculate odds unless every ticket is sold - finite number -- or the selling has ended = = Raffle not lottery

and again 1 to 13 is 93% chance to win this is all bad math or misleading as all get out.

And in a lottery the odds are fixed 1 ticket or 1 million tickets.

 

How did you get that notion? What I read from the post was that it were the odds for this time based on the tickets sold so far.